Karnataka Weather Alert: Surprise Rains In Sight For Bengaluru? What’s The Forecast?

Bengaluru residents woke up to a mix of cloudy skies with occasional sunshine on Thursday. Meanwhile, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) has raised its rainfall prediction for West Bengaluru, forecasting around 18 mm of rain tomorrow. Also, the Australian Community Climate and Earth-System Simulator (ACCESS) suggests the formation of a circulation at the 850 hPa level over Bengaluru. If this circulation persists, it could lead to widespread moderate to heavy rains for a short duration tomorrow.

Vijay, a popular weather blogger behind 'Namma Karnataka Weather', explains an unusual weather pattern for May. The Bay of Bengal (BoB) LPA is facing off against the Arabian Sea LPA, a scenario more common in October. The BoB LPA is expected to win, absorbing the moisture from the Arabian Sea LPA. This Arabian Sea circulation, surprisingly persistent for four days, is forecast to move eastward towards the central Kerala coast before dissipating within 36-48 hours.

This movement could trigger heavy rainfall in Kerala, South Canara, the Nilgiris, the Nilgiri-Idukki-Theni (NITN) region, and southern Karnataka.

Arabian Sea Circulation: An Unexpected Persistence

The continued presence of the Arabian Sea circulation, which formed on May 19th, is unusual. Typically, such circulations move northwest and either intensify or dissipate within 2-3 days. However, this system has persisted into its fifth day.

Meanwhile, weather model forecasts suggest the circulation will move east-northeast, making landfall between Kochi and Kozhikode tomorrow before weakening further. This unusual path typically sees circulations moving west or northwest away from the coast or dissipating.

If the forecast holds, expect additional heavy rains along Kerala, the Nilgiris, and parts of NITN. Travelers heading to Ooty from Mysuru should be cautious of the potential for very heavy rains. Conditions are expected to improve from next week onwards.

Weather Forecast for Today and Tomorrow:

Today: Heavy rain is possible in Mangalore, Udupi, Kodagu, Mysuru, Mandya, and Chamarajanagara districts. The rest of the state can expect light to moderate showers.

Tomorrow: The Arabian Sea circulation's eastward movement might bring heavy rains to Kerala, the Nilgiris, and parts of NITN. Travelers on the Mysuru-Ooty route should be cautious of this possibility.

Weather Forecast for Bengaluru: Week Ahead

Today's Forecast:
Bengaluru residents can expect isolated light to moderate rains in a few areas. Keep an umbrella handy as showers might be sporadic throughout the day.

May 24:
The city is likely to experience moderate to heavy rains in scattered areas due to a convergence moving north. Be prepared for potentially significant rainfall that could affect various parts of Bengaluru.

May 25 - 30:
A dry spell is forecasted for Bengaluru, with no significant rainfall expected during this period. Residents can look forward to clear skies and dry weather conditions throughout the rest of the week.