If Elections Were Held Today, Congress Trails Behind BJP in Karnataka Assembly Polls

A recent survey by Hyderabad-based People's Pulse and Codemo Technologies suggests a clear bipolar contest shaping up in Karnataka's upcoming Assembly elections. If the elections were held today, the BJP is predicted to win decisively, securing between 136 and 159 seats, while the Congress trails with 62 to 82 seats. The JD(S), once a key player, is expected to be a distant third, winning only 3 to 6 seats, signaling a significant shift in the state's political landscape.

Despite the BJP's expected dominance, Chief Minister Siddaramaiah remains the most popular chief ministerial candidate, favored by nearly 30% of respondents across party lines. His deputy, D.K. Shivakumar, also enjoys considerable support with 10.7% backing. Interestingly, none of the BJP leaders, including former chief ministers B.S. Yediyurappa, Basavaraj Bommai, or BJP state president B.Y. Vijayendra, individually crossed double-digit popularity; however, 16.9% of voters said they would support any BJP candidate.

The survey, which spanned a month and included over 10,000 respondents, also revealed significant anti-incumbency sentiments against the Congress, whose vote share has declined from 42.88% in 2023 to 40.3% in this poll. When it comes to governance ratings, 48.4% of people rated the Congress government as good or very good, while 51.6% felt it was average, bad, or very bad.

Regarding the ongoing caste census, 42.3% of respondents either fully or partially trust the Social and Educational Survey report, though 22.7% were unaware of the exercise. Support for the caste census was higher among Congress voters compared to BJP supporters.

Among the Congress's flagship welfare schemes, "Gruha Lakshmi," which provides Rs 2,000 per month to the woman head of the family, was the most popular, enjoying approval from 45.4% of voters. It was followed by other schemes like Shakti, Anna Bhagya, Gruha Jyothi, and Yuva Nidhi.