Artificial Superintelligence Could Outthink All Humans Combined, Warns Former Google CEO

Eric Schmidt, the former CEO of Google, has issued a stark warning about the impending arrival of Artificial Superintelligence (ASI). He believes society is not prepared for this development. In a podcast episode of the Special Competitive Studies Project, Schmidt highlighted that ASI is approaching faster than anticipated. Yet, it is not receiving the attention it deserves.

Schmidt's concerns extend beyond current AI issues like algorithmic bias and job automation. He warns that ASI will surpass human intelligence significantly. Unlike Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), which aims to match human cognitive abilities, ASI could exceed the collective intelligence of all humans combined. "People do not understand what happens when you have intelligence at this level, which is largely free," Schmidt cautioned.

AI's Impact on Programming Jobs

One of Schmidt's boldest predictions involves AI's potential to render most programming jobs obsolete within a year. He points to recursive self-improvement as a driving force behind this shift. AI systems are now capable of writing and refining their own code using formal systems like Lean. Currently, AI contributes significantly to software development.

"Ten to twenty percent of the code in research labs like OpenAI and Anthropic is now being written by AI itself," Schmidt noted. As these systems advance, they will outperform even top-tier human mathematicians in areas such as advanced coding and structured reasoning. This shift could fundamentally alter the role of human labor in technology.

The Leap from AGI to ASI

Schmidt highlights that many in Silicon Valley agree AGI will be achieved within three to five years. However, he stresses that AGI is merely a precursor to ASI. The transition from AGI to ASI could occur just one or two years later, marking a dramatic leap in technological evolution.

He refers to this trajectory as the "San Francisco Consensus," reflecting tech elites' growing alignment on the short timeline to ASI. "This occurs within six years, just based on scaling," Schmidt stated. The rapid transition may outpace traditional governance, legal, and economic systems' ability to adapt.

The Urgent Need for Preparedness

Despite ASI's transformative potential, Schmidt points out a critical gap in public awareness and discourse. The issue lies not only in AI's rapid evolution but also in the lack of conceptual language and institutional frameworks to engage with it meaningfully.

"There's no language for what happens with the arrival of this," he remarked. The world's democratic and policy systems are lagging behind innovation's pace, creating a dangerous mismatch between technological capability and societal readiness.

As AI systems surpass human capabilities, Schmidt presents two possible futures: one where superintelligent systems drive a technological renaissance solving humanity's greatest challenges; another where institutional collapse and ethical crises lead to unprecedented societal upheaval.

Schmidt urges society to prepare for ASI before it's too late. His warnings are grounded in current conversations among those building tomorrow's technologies. Whether one agrees with his timeline or not, his message is clear: Artificial Superintelligence is fast becoming a present reality.

The world must shift its focus from narrow debates about near-term AI risks to broader discussions on long-term governance, ethics, and preparedness for what could be humanity's most transformative force.