Decoded: TDP's Unprecedented Poll Performance & Jagan's Downfall

The history of the state of Andhra Pradesh was rewritten on June 4, 2024. 5 years after being limited to a mere 23 assembly seats by a massive 'Jagan-wave' in 2019, the Telugu Desam Party, led by India's most experienced politician, Chandrababu Naidu, staged an unimaginable resurgence by winning 135 out of the 144 seats contested by the party.

The TDP-JSP-BJP alliance together won a mammoth 164 seats out of 175. As a consequence, the YSRCP's tally fell from 151 to 11 assembly seats. While most analysts and survey agencies predicted the fact that the alliance would claim power, none could even remotely hint at the state 'rejecting' those in power to this extent.

A single reason has never led to the rise or downfall of any party. It is always a consequence of multiple issues spanning over a period of five years(or more ). Speaking to OneIndia Telugu, top sources belonging to the TDP highlighted the following reasons:

Relentlessness of the TDP: Unlike most other regional parties out of power, the Telugu Desam Party was seen relentlessly taking the heat to the ruling YSRCP through the course of the five years. In other words, they did what the Congress couldn't in Telangana from 2014 to 2023. Issues like price rise, policies surrounding land and sand, excise/liquor policy and the immoral depletion of environment were effective raised at multiple levels. A ferocious campaign against the Land Titling Act that the TDP executed during the last 10 days was the last nail in the coffin.

Promises: The TDP's pre-poll promises contributed considerably to the party's win. Free Cylinders, Free Bus Rides for Women (Uchitha Bus Prayanam), the BC Protection Act, Hike in Pensions, assistance of 1500 for women aged between 18 and 59 (Adabidda Nidhi), assistance of 20,000 under the Annadatha Scheme for farmers, creation of 20 lakh jobs in 5 years, and an assistance of 3000 for the unemployed are marquee promises that did the job for the men in yellow.

YSRCP's Self-Goals: The arrogance of those in power from 2019 to 2024 played a significant role in creating a systematic wave against the YSRCP. The YSRCP, instead of continuing certain key initiatives undertaken by CBN during his last term, resorted to reversing all the decisions and irking important strategic private partners in the process.

For example, The Lulu Mall was supposed to enter Andhra Pradesh if it wasn't for YS Jagan taking the allotted land bank. The management decided to look at Hyderabad instead. When CBN came to power after 9 long years in 2014, important initiatives undertaken by YS Rajshekhar Reddy were not discontinued. The Government meddling with industries ranging from Tollywood to Real-Estate had a huge role to play.

Rather than promoting and facilitating the progression of such industries, the administration acted against their interests. Illegal arrests of Chandrababu Naidu and fellow party men gave rise to impeccable unity. To be price, every single democratic institution was meddled with & this resulted in a massive revolt at all possible levels. Though it was on expected lines, development being neglected for the entire term in the name of 'Welfare' was taken very seriously by aspirational voters. On one hand we have CBN who is credited for making Hyderabad what it is today and on the other is YS Jagan who clearly couldn't attract a single investor in 5 years. The choice was simple.

Alliance: The JSP-BJP-TDP pre-poll alliance definitely played a role. It led to the consolidation of the Kamma-Kapu vote, which can singlehandedly alter the results of the state assembly elections. Multiple attempts were made by the YSRCP to destabilize the alliance to avoid this, but in vain. The alliance stuck together and created history.

Candidates: This time around, the candidates were chosen with the larger picture in mind. Opting for data-driven selection of candidates with their eyes on the win over the usual 'please your loyalist' way helped extend the majority to 164 .

Effectiveness of the SM Team: The TDP's in-house social media team successfully gave birth to nearly 20 national trends when their chief was in jail. AP & TDP's content was trending at least for the last 40 days of the campaign and that was out there for the world to see. A total of 600-800 strategic pieces of content was produced and pushed out. In the age of Social Media, one will have to say that the effectiveness of the team ia directly proportional to the party's chances.

Blame-Game within YSRCP begins soon after

Senior YSRCP Leader & the party's Rajanagaram candidate, Jakkampudi Raja lashed out at senior bureaucrats soon after the counting was done. He went onto say, ' The officials, including senior IAS officer Mr. K Dhanunjaya Reddy misguided the former CM about the ground reality. Ot was these officials who weakened the connectivity between the CM & the MLA'.

Founder of Absolute Politico, one of the political consultancies that worked extensively in AP seconded the reasons listed by TDP sources.

He said, 'The results in Andhra Pradesh were influenced by several factors. Dissatisfaction with selective welfare schemes alienated the OC Hindu community (35%), who felt burdened by increased taxes. This discontent, coupled with neglect of economic growth, drove many to oppose the ruling party. Pawan Kalyan's alliance with TDP and BJP, backed by the Kapu (16%) and Kamma (5%) communities, formed a strong opposition.

SC and ST voters also shifted support due to concerns over the government's actions. Young voters, attracted by Pawan Kalyan's idealism and social media presence, further boosted the alliance, which also gained the backing of backward communities (32% of the vote share). Pawan Kalyan's resilience since 2019 united his supporters, contributing to JSP's success.'

While it is true that no party is ever down and out in politics, it would be safe to say that the way forward for the YSRCP after such a dismal performance will be tough & depends on a lot of factors that the party may not be able to control.