Fidel Castro fades out. Tropical Taliban next

HAVANA, Sep 18: No matter whether Fidel Castro returns to office or not, diplomats and dissidents say the post-Fidel era has already begun and some foresee an ideological tug of war between ''tropical Taliban'' and proponents of Chinese-style economic reforms.

Castro, 80, handed over power to his brother Raul, 75, on July 31 after undergoing emergency surgery for intestinal bleeding blamed on overwork. While officials said the elder Castro was recovering well, he was too ill to make an appearance at a summit of 116 Third World countries in Havana last week.

The Castro brothers hold world records for years in power: Fidel is the world's longest-serving head of government, Raul the longest-serving defense minister -- both 47 years.

''It is difficult to envisage Fidel running the country as he used to, and with the same vigor,'' said a Latin American diplomat.

''He is on the way to becoming a symbol and a figurehead.'' More than 70 per cent of Cuba's 11 million population were born after Fidel Castro seized power in 1959 and tend to be reluctant to talk about a future without him. But a number of dissidents speak out frankly and on the record.

''Cuba has not been the same since July 31,'' said Miriam Leiva, a co-founder of the Ladies in White, a group of women whose husbands were arrested, tried and convicted in a large-scale crackdown on dissidents three years ago.

Her husband, economist Oscar Espinosa Chepe, was released for health reasons 19 months later. Most of the others are still in prison and the Ladies in White stage a silent protest march every Sunday. Espinosa Chepe and Leiva aired their views in an interview in their tiny apartment in Havana.

Both see economic reforms managed by the Cuban Armed Forces headed by Raul Castro as the best hope for the near future, a sentiment echoed privately by many Cubans who tend to complain more vociferously about economic misery than the political system.

TROPICAL TALIBAN

''What would be disastrous would be for the tropical Taliban to run the country,'' Espinosa Chepe said. The phrase refers to a younger generation of officials mentored personally by Fidel Castro.

The phrase Taliban is borrowed from the Afghan militants whose narrow interpretation of Islam caused them to ban music and stone adulterers to death.

To hear Cubans tell it, the list of true believers includes Otto Rivero, vice president of the Council of Ministers for the Battle of Ideas, Hassan Perez, vice president of the Union of Communists, Miriam Yanet Martin, president of the Jose Marti pioneers youth group and Foreign Minister Felipe Perez Roque. They are all in their 30s and early 40s and their views are reflected by a banner along Havana's fabled Malecon seafront boulevard. ''Fidel Forever!'' it says.

The true believers versus potential economic reformers scenario has gained so much currency it prompted questions at a news conference during the non-aligned summit that ended on Saturday.

Economy Minister Jose Luis, responding to a reporter's question, said: ''In the hypothetical case that Comandante Fidel remains ill, would there be a change in Cuban policy toward a market opening? I can categorically say that is not foreseen, the Cuban people do not want that.'' CLOWNS AND MASSEURS Castro initiated a limited economic opening in the early 1990s but rolled it back three years ago, cutting licenses for services that private individuals can provide, including clowns and masseurs.

Why do some Cubans place their hopes for reforms on the Armed Forces? They were the first to introduce capitalist business practices into Cuba and now control technology and computing firms, beach resort hotels, car rental firms, an airline, a fleet of buses and a large retail chain.

The Cuban sugar industry is run by a general, as is the ports administration and the lucrative cigar industry.

''It is difficult to see political change but Raul will have to introduce economic reforms if he wants to avoid a social explosion,'' said Espinosa Chepe, the dissident economist. ''The Armed Forces are the best organized entity in the country and much more flexible than any other.'' Outside experts agree the Armed Forces would be a better agent of change, if it were to come, than any other institution. ''Unlike the Communist Party, the armed forces are widely popular,'' said Hal Klepak, a history professor at the Royal Military Institute of Canada and author of a book on the Cuban military.

Change in Havana, diplomats say, depends to a considerable degree on attitudes in Washington and Miami, where Cuban exiles have been relentlessly hostile toward Castro and instrumental in maintaining a 44-year-old economic boycott of Cuba.

Critics of the embargo, including prominent dissidents, see it as a chief reason for Castro's long survival. ''Without it, he wouldn't have been able to foster nationalism the way he did. Without it, he couldn't have blamed the U.S. for his disastrous policies,'' said Espinosa Chepe.

Most of the world agrees. The embargo is regularly put to a vote at the United Nations. Last year, the margin was 182 in favor of a resolution to end the embargo, four against.

Reuters