Palakkad Assembly By-Election: Will BJP Register Victory? Here's What Onmanorama Survey Claims

The Palakkad constituency is crucial for the Congress-led UDF, not just to retain the seat but also because their opponent, Sarin from the LDF, was once the digital media convener of the KPCC. This by-election follows a spirited month-long campaign.

Voter Turnout and Candidates

On Wednesday, over 1.90 lakh voters will decide their representative for Palakkad in the Kerala Assembly. The by-election was necessitated after Congress leader Shafi Parambil resigned as MLA following his election to the Lok Sabha from Vadakara. Ten candidates are vying for this seat, with key contenders being Rahul Mamkootathil (UDF), C Krishnakumar (NDA), and P Sarin (LDF).

Polling in Palakkad's assembly by-election surpassed 50% turnout more than eight hours after voting began. According to the final voter list, 1,94,706 individuals are eligible to vote, including 1,00,290 women.

Survey Insights and Voter Sentiments

An Onmanorama survey on November 19 reveals strong anti-incumbency sentiments among voters. The survey suggests that the main contest is between UDF and BJP, with CPM trailing in third place. A significant portion of voters, 32.5%, indicated that personal political preferences would influence their decision.

Interestingly, allegations of a secret deal involving BJP with either major front seemed unimportant to most voters. About 62.5% dismissed such claims, while only 17.5% suspected a secret arrangement, mostly believing it involved CPM.

The survey also indicates that Nilambur MLA P V Anvar's rebellion had minimal impact on voters; only 3% took his "criminalisation of politics" charge seriously. Onmanorama contacted 40 voters from Palakkad Municipality and three panchayat areas: Mathur, Pirayiri and Kannadi.

Key Issues Influencing Voters

The plight of paddy farmers and LDF government's performance are major factors influencing voter behaviour in Palakkad. Nearly one-third of surveyed voters (32.5%) cited issues like delayed procurement and low prices for paddy as top concerns when voting on November 20. For another 27.5%, the performance of Pinarayi Vijayan's government was a significant consideration.

A notable finding from the survey is that 55% found it difficult to accept Dr P Sarin's sudden shift to the Left camp; however, 40% were comfortable with his change in allegiance.

Allegations and Public Perception

A large majority of respondents (67.5%), including two who supported LDF candidate Sarin without question, rejected CPM's accusation against Congress candidate Rahul Mamkoottathil regarding money smuggling in a trolley bag.

Conversely, many surveyed believed BJP state president K Surendran was implicated in the Kodakara hawala scandal; among them were supporters who trusted Narendra Modi's government entirely.

Regarding Wayanad landslide relief efforts, 74% felt that if funds weren't transferred by the Centre for rehabilitation efforts there, it was due to state government's shortcomings rather than central reluctance.

Ultimately, these insights reflect varied voter priorities and perceptions ahead of this pivotal by-election in Palakkad constituency.