Kerala Pre-Poll Survey: Can LDF Retain Power In Keralam? Check This Opinion Poll

As the Kerala Assembly Election 2026 nears, political enthusiasts are eager to see which way the tide may turn in the 140-member Assembly. A recent pre-poll survey conducted by Lok Poll indicates a clear advantage for the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF), with the ruling CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) facing signs of voter fatigue and shifting support across key regions with the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) poised to spring a surprise or two.

According to the Lok Poll survey, the UDF is expected to win between 77 and 81 seats with a vote share of 42-44 per cent, placing it firmly ahead in Keralam assembly election polls. The LDF is estimated to secure 58 to 62 seats with a vote share of 39-41 per cent, while the NDA is expected to remain marginal with 1 to 2 seats and a vote share of 14-16 per cent.

Kerala Election 2026: Seat Projections

LDF 58 - 62 seats
UDF 77 - 81 seats
NDA 1 - 2 seats

The opinion poll was conducted conducted between March 14 and 31 with a sample size of 36,400, presents a comprehensive pre-poll projection based on ground-level feedback.

The pre-poll survey divides Keralam into three zones to better capture regional trends, and the results show a consistent edge for the UDF across most parts of the state.

In North Kerala, the UDF is projected to dominate with 28 to 32 seats, while the LDF is likely to win 13 to 16 seats. The NDA is not expected to open its account in this region. The strong showing for the UDF here is attributed to consolidation of minority votes and growing dissatisfaction among sections of traditional LDF supporters.

Central Kerala also reflects a similar trend, with the UDF expected to secure 29 to 33 seats compared to the LDF's 18 to 23 seats. The NDA again remains out of contention in this zone. Analysts point to local-level factors and alliance cohesion working in favour of the UDF.

In South Kerala, the contest appears more balanced. The UDF is projected to win 16 to 20 seats, while the LDF may secure between 16 and 19 seats. The NDA could gain a limited foothold here with 0 to 2 seats, making it the only region where it shows any potential electoral presence.

The broader findings of the survey suggest that issues such as governance concerns, corruption narratives and internal challenges within the LDF may be influencing voter sentiment. At the same time, the UDF appears to be benefiting from stronger alliance unity, reduced vote leakage and better momentum at the grassroots level.

Despite some gains in vote share, the NDA's expansion remains restricted to a few pockets, with limited impact on the overall electoral outcome.

Earlier, the Manorama-C Voter mega election survey predicted a narrow advantage for the UDF. It predicted the alliance to secure between 69 and 81 seats with a vote share of 39 per cent, largely unchanged from the 2021 elections. The LDF is expected to win 57 to 69 seats, with its vote share dropping to 36 per cent, a decline of 9.4 percentage points. The NDA appears to be the main gainer in the survey, with its tally projected at 1 to 5 seats and its vote share rising to 17 per cent, an increase of 5.7 percentage points.

Other surveys also indicate a tightly contested election. The News18 Vote Tracker similarly places both the UDF and the LDF in the 67 to 73 seat range, with the NDA expected to secure 1 to 5 seats.

Kerala will vote on April 9, with counting on May 4, the Election Commission of India said. The contest is mainly between the CPI(M)-led LDF and the Congress-led UDF, while the BJP-led NDA is trying to expand its presence.

In 2021, the LDF retained power with 99 seats, while the UDF won 41 and the NDA failed to open its account. The result broke Kerala's long-standing pattern of voting out incumbent governments, with the LDF returning for a second straight term after four decades.