Key Challenges Hindering Ceasefire Negotiations Between Israel and Hezbollah Amid Ongoing Conflict

The ongoing conflict between Israel and Hezbollah has seen numerous hurdles in ceasefire discussions, despite favourable conditions for an agreement. Israel's military has targeted most of Hezbollah's senior leaders, yet missile attacks on Israel persist. Many Israelis displaced from the border are urging their government to facilitate their return. Globally, there is a desire to prevent the conflict from escalating further after over a year of hostilities.

Israel and Hezbollah have been exchanging fire almost daily since October 8, 2023, following an attack by Hamas-led militants on Israel. This triggered the war in Gaza. Israel initiated a large-scale bombardment of Lebanon two months ago, followed by a ground invasion. Over 3,500 people have died in Lebanon, mostly civilians, while more than 70 have died in Israel, including over 40 civilians and more than 50 soldiers.

Ceasefire Proposal Details

A proposed ceasefire aims to halt fighting between Israel and Hezbollah for two months. During this period, Israeli forces would withdraw from Lebanon, and Hezbollah would cease its armed presence south of the Litani River. The Lebanese army, largely inactive during the war, would bolster border patrols alongside UN peacekeepers. An international committee would oversee the ceasefire and enforce UN Security Council Resolution 1701.

The resolution was initially passed in 2006 to end a month-long war between Israel and Hezbollah but was never fully implemented. Hezbollah maintained its presence in southern Lebanon, while Lebanon accused Israel of airspace violations and occupying small territories. It's uncertain if a new agreement would be more successful than the previous one.

Points of Disagreement

Several disputes remain unresolved in negotiations. Israel demands assurances that Hezbollah's weapons will be removed from border areas. Israeli officials insist on retaining the right to strike in Lebanon if they suspect Hezbollah is violating any agreement. Lebanese officials argue that such terms infringe on Lebanon's sovereignty.

Hezbollah leader Naim Kassem stated that any deal must ensure a "complete and comprehensive end to the aggression" while safeguarding Lebanon's sovereignty. Disagreements also exist over which countries should be part of the international committee overseeing the deal's implementation.

Israel initially opposed France's involvement due to recent tensions but has since accepted it as part of the monitoring committee. However, Lebanon has rejected Britain's participation due to its close ties with Israel. It remains unclear if Lebanon has changed its stance following Israel's concession.

Regional Implications

A ceasefire could ease regional tensions and reduce fears of direct conflict between Israel and Iran, given Hezbollah's status as Iran's strongest proxy. However, its impact on the ongoing Israel-Hamas war in Gaza is uncertain. Previously, Hezbollah insisted on linking any ceasefire to the end of the Gaza conflict but has since dropped this condition.

Diplomats warn that without a ceasefire, the war might spread further into Syria and Iraq as Israel seeks to cut off Iranian weapon supplies to Hezbollah. Israel frequently targets Iran-linked groups in Syria and has threatened strikes in Iraq against Iran-backed militias launching drone attacks on Israel.

UN special envoy for Syria Geir Pedersen emphasised during a Damascus visit that ceasefires in Gaza and Lebanon are crucial to prevent Syria from being further drawn into the conflict.

Current Situation

Despite being weakened, Hezbollah continues to launch attacks into Israel, including strikes far from the border. On Sunday, it fired approximately 250 rockets into Israel, injuring seven people in response to Israeli strikes in Beirut. Clashes persist in southern Lebanon as Israeli forces attempt to seize strategic towns.

Israel aims to enable displaced Israelis to return home safely through its military actions against Hezbollah. In Lebanon, where a quarter of the population is displaced and significant destruction has occurred, particularly in southern regions and areas south of Beirut, there is eagerness for peace.

Initially optimistic about a resolution after US mediator Amos Hochstein's visit last week, many now doubt an agreement will be reached before President-elect Donald Trump assumes office in January.