What Donald Trump's Second Shot At US Presidency Could Mean For India? Defence, Trade, H-1B Visa

Just a week before the US presidential election, Republican candidate Donald Trump reiterated his commitment to strengthening the "great partnership" between the United States and India.

Describing Prime Minister Narendra Modi as his "good friend," Trump, in a Diwali message on X, pledged to enhance relations between the two nations under his potential administration.

The former president also condemned recent attacks on Hindus and other minorities in Bangladesh, where reports indicate that hundreds of Hindus have faced deadly violence in the Muslim-majority country.

Trump's statement comes as exiled Bangladeshi prime minister Sheikh Hasina seeks refuge in India following her ousting, adding complexity to South Asia's geopolitical landscape.

Trump's message to the Indian diaspora in the US is strategically timed, highlighting the close bond he shares with Modi. This rapport was previously displayed in high-profile events such as the "Howdy, Modi!" rally in Texas in 2019, where Trump hosted Modi in front of an estimated 50,000 people, marking one of the largest gatherings for a foreign leader in the US.

In 2020, Modi reciprocated by hosting Trump in Gujarat at the Narendra Modi Cricket Stadium-where over 120,000 attendees welcomed the US president.

This camaraderie is more than symbolic, reflecting both leaders' nationalist ideologies. Modi's "India First" vision aligns closely with Trump's "America First" policies, each focused on domestic economic growth, nationalism, and border security.

Trump's foreign policy, consistently centred on national interests and strategic partnerships, is likely to impact India's economic and defence sectors.

Economic and trade policies

Under a Trump-led administration, US-centric trade policies could be prioritised, potentially pressuring India to lower trade barriers or face tariffs. India's IT, pharmaceutical, and textile industries, which export significantly to the US, could be notably affected.

In September, while criticising India as an "abuser" on tariffs, Trump also referred to Modi as a "fantastic man."

At a town hall in Flint, Michigan, while discussing trade and tariffs, Trump remarked, "So when India, which is a very big abuser... These people are the sharpest people. They're not a little bit backwards... You know the expression, they are at the top of their game, and they use it against us. But India is very tough. Brazil is very tough.... China is the toughest of all, but we were taking care of China with the tariffs."

However, Trump's goal to reduce reliance on China by urging American companies to relocate their supply chains elsewhere could benefit India. With supportive policies, India might attract more US companies seeking to diversify operations, boosting its economic outlook.

Defence and security

Trump's stance on China aligns closely with India's concerns, and defence cooperation would likely deepen under his leadership. His administration previously strengthened the Quad-a security partnership between the US, India, Japan, and Australia-to counter China's influence in the Indo-Pacific. Additional joint military exercises, arms sales, and technology transfers could enhance India's defence capabilities amid regional tensions with countries like China and Pakistan.

Immigration and H-1B visa policies

On immigration, Trump's restrictive policies, particularly concerning the H-1B visa programme, significantly impacted Indian professionals in the US. A return to such policies could complicate Indian workers' access to American job markets, affecting sectors reliant on skilled Indian workers, particularly technology. Additionally, stricter immigration laws could prompt Indian tech firms to explore alternative markets or invest in creating more domestic opportunities.

Geopolitical influence

Trump's policies in South Asia could also impact India's regional interests. While Trump has been open to working with Pakistan, he has called for accountability in counter-terrorism efforts, potentially creating a balanced approach. However, Trump's "Peace through strength" philosophy could lead to a tougher US stance on terrorism and extremism, aligning with India's security objectives.