US Efforts to Stabilise Post-Assad Syria Amid Regional Challenges

Antony Blinken, the U.S. Secretary of State, concluded what might be his final Middle East visit as America's top diplomat. His mission was to prevent Syria from descending into chaos following President Bashar Assad's sudden removal. Blinken's trip took place amid uncertainty in Washington and abroad about Donald Trump's approach to the Middle East when he assumes office on 20 January 2025.

Blinken met with leaders in Jordan, Turkey, and Iraq to discuss Syria's future post-Assad. He aimed to build consensus among regional partners whose interests often differ. "We know that what happens inside of Syria can have powerful consequences well beyond its borders, from mass displacement to terrorism," he stated in Aqaba, Jordan. "And we know that we can't underestimate the challenges of this moment."

Charting a New Course for Syria

Blinken left Washington shortly after Assad fled to Russia, a long-time ally. His goal was to persuade Middle Eastern countries and others to support the U.S. vision for Syria's governance after decades of Assad family rule. He secured backing from 12 Arab League foreign ministers, Turkey, and top officials from the EU and UN during an emergency meeting in Aqaba.

The new Syrian government should respect minority and women's rights, prevent terror groups from gaining control, ensure humanitarian aid reaches those in need, and eliminate any remaining Assad-era chemical weapons. Blinken promised U.S. recognition and support for a government meeting these principles.

Seeking Stability Against Islamic State

Syria's internal conflicts contributed to the rise of the Islamic State (IS) group. Turkey views Syrian and Iraqi Kurds as terrorists, although some have been key U.S. allies against IS. The U.S. brokered an agreement between Turkey and the Syrian Defense Forces (SDF) after Assad's departure, though its longevity is uncertain.

"We have the urgency of now," Blinken said, emphasizing the need to maintain gains against IS. The SDF holds about 10,000 fighters in detention facilities, playing a crucial role during this unstable period when IS might try to regroup.

Concerns Over Trump's Return

There are concerns about how Trump will handle Middle East issues apart from strengthening ties with Israel. Trump has demanded hostages' release in Gaza, threatening severe consequences otherwise. Despite his past desire to withdraw U.S. troops from Syria, officials believe Trump won't abandon military positions due to IS threats.

Iraq signed an agreement with the U.S. for coalition withdrawal next year but hints at possible timetable changes due to conditions on the ground. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan expressed cautious optimism about a Gaza ceasefire before Biden leaves office.

Efforts to Find Missing Americans

The Biden administration prioritised finding Austin Tice, an American journalist believed held in Syria for over a decade. Following Assad's ouster, efforts intensified to locate Tice and bring him home. Blinken confirmed direct contact with rebels who ousted Assad regarding Tice's situation.

Roger Carstens, Washington's top hostage negotiator, visited Lebanon seeking information on Tice's whereabouts. The administration remains committed to resolving this longstanding issue.

As Blinken wraps up his Middle East visit, the region faces uncertainty with Trump's impending return to power. The focus remains on stabilising Syria post-Assad while addressing broader regional challenges like IS resurgence and hostages' release in Gaza.