Navigating The Complex US-India Diplomacy: The Uncertain Path Ahead For QUAD

America's diplomacy and security alignments work as long as its interests are served or its authority is not challenged. After its experience with SEATO, the outlook for the QUAD, which includes the US, India, Australia, and Japan, seems uncertain. The SEATO pact with Pakistan in 1954 was dissolved by 1977.

Has the QUAD outlived its usefulness for the US? Or has India's reluctance to follow the American line led to its possible end? The QUAD has been inactive for a year. Experts believe differences between the US and India are the main reason.

Some say the US has sacrificed this geopolitical platform due to its interference in India's internal affairs. Although elections are over in India, with Narendra Modi re-elected, is the tension between India and the US really over?

The US is upset with India's alleged role in an assassination attempt on Khalistani leader Gurpatwant Singh Pannun. India is unhappy with the Biden administration's comments on its electoral process and domestic politics before the elections.

As Prime Minister Modi embarks on his first foreign tour after re-election to attend the G7 summit in Italy, a bilateral meeting with Joe Biden is expected. The focus will be on the American tone during this meeting.

However, with Washington highlighting opportunities for partnership with India, will they reconcile their differences? The US has been critical of India's democracy under Modi. 'Freedom House' downgraded India's score from 'free' to 'partly free', accusing Modi's government of discrimination against Muslims.

The US Commission on International Religious Freedom (USCIRF) recommended that India be declared a 'country of particular concern'. The US statements during India's election period also caused strong reactions from Modi's government.

There is a belief within Indian strategic circles that Western nations, especially the US, interfered in India's electoral process. Western media produced many articles highlighting issues faced by Muslims in India.

Former Indian diplomat Kanwal Sibal noted that Western media orchestrated a campaign against Modi during elections. The US Commission on International Religious Freedom and other organisations joined this effort.

The US and Canada have also been supporting the Khalistani movement to pressure Modi's government. This has affected India's ties with Canada. The current strains in India-US relations are seen as reasons for the QUAD's inactivity.

The QUAD has not met for a year and a half. Biden hosted the first in-person meeting of QUAD leaders in 2021, and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida hosted the second summit in May 2022.

The 2023 QUAD meeting was to be hosted by Australia but was postponed due to Biden's domestic issues. India was keen to host it during Republic Day celebrations but Biden dropped out of the visit, which was seen as a snub to India.

Washington later said that the summit would be rescheduled in India later this year, but it seems unlikely due to upcoming US presidential elections. According to Ian Hall from Griffith University, there is growing scepticism about the QUAD among foreign policy elites in New Delhi and Washington.

Many commentators dispute this, but critics argue that it was an unnatural grouping headed towards failure like SEATO. China had predicted several times that the QUAD would not succeed, and this seems to be happening.

The South East Asia Treaty Organization (SEATO) was created by the US to contain communist ideology from China in South Asia. It included Pakistan and several South East Asian nations like the Philippines and Thailand but became dominated by outside powers like the US, UK, France, and Australia.

Experts say there are parallels between SEATO and QUAD. The most important factor is that India was unwilling to be a 'client state' of the US under QUAD. The US wanted to use QUAD as a platform against China but India refused to play along.

India aims to become self-reliant and build its economy like China without engaging in conflict. This has not gone down well with the US. The US tried several times to portray QUAD as a military alliance but India rejected this idea.

India maintained that QUAD's focus was on health, education, emerging technologies, maritime awareness, infrastructure development, cyber security, and climate change adaptation. The US expectations from QUAD have not been met.

The US has created another grouping called AUKUS with Australia and UK as an alternative to QUAD. All three countries describe AUKUS as a military grouping. The US has also involved the Philippines against China in the South China Sea.

However, experts believe that QUAD is not dead and that the US will return to it since there is no alternative to India in Asia to counter China. Despite all differences, India and the US will continue their partnership which can reshape geopolitics.