Turkey's Main Opposition Set to Keep Control of Key Cities According to Early Votes

In Turkey's local elections on Sunday, the main opposition party seemed poised to retain control over key cities, according to preliminary results. This comes as a significant setback for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who aimed to regain control of these urban areas. With 20% of votes counted, Ekrem Imamoglu, the incumbent mayor of Istanbul and a member of the Republican People's Party (CHP), was leading in Turkey's largest city and economic hub. Mansur Yavas, the mayor of Ankara, also appeared set to keep his seat with a comfortable majority.

The CHP was leading in 35 of Turkey's 81 provinces, as per the preliminary results reported by state broadcaster TRT. The election was viewed as a measure of Erdogan's popularity as he sought to win back control of key urban areas lost to the opposition in elections five years ago. The CHP's victory in Ankara and Istanbul in 2019 had shattered Erdogan's aura of invincibility. Istanbul, a city of 16 million people where Erdogan was born and raised, and where he began his political career as mayor in 1994, was the main battleground for the 70-year-old Turkish president.

A strong showing for Erdogan's ruling Islamic-oriented Justice and Development Party (AKP) would likely strengthen his resolve to introduce a new constitution that would reflect his conservative values and allow him to rule beyond 2028 when his current term ends. For the opposition, retaining Istanbul and Ankara would be a significant boost and help remobilize supporters. Over 61 million people were eligible to cast ballots for all metropolitan municipalities, town and district mayorships, as well as neighborhood administrations.

However, this vote took place amid a cost-of-living crisis in Turkey. Observers said disillusioned opposition supporters might choose to stay home, doubting that the election would change things. Governing party supporters could also opt not to go to the polls in protest at the economic downturn that has left many struggling to pay for food, utilities, and rent. Despite the deployment of 594,000 security personnel across the country to ensure a smooth vote, one person was killed and eleven others were injured in Diyarbakir due to a dispute over the election of a neighborhood administrator.

Regarding the early results, Imamoglu said, "According to the data we have obtained, it seems our citizens trust in us; their faith in us has paid off." Polls had indicated a close race between Istanbul's incumbent mayor Imamoglu and AKP candidate Murat Kurum, a former urbanization and environment minister. Imamoglu ran without the support of some parties that helped him win in 2019. Both the pro-Kurdish Peoples Equality and Democracy Party and the nationalist IYI Party fielded their own candidates in the race.

A six-party opposition alliance led by CHP disintegrated after failing to oust Erdogan in last year's election. It could not capitalize on the economic crisis or the government's initially poor response to last year's devastating earthquake that killed over 53,000 people. Hamish Kinnear, a senior Middle East and North Africa analyst at risk intelligence company Verisk Maplecroft, said that if Imamoglu hangs on in Istanbul, "he will be well placed to unify the fractious opposition and launch a bid for the presidency in 2028." However, losing Istanbul would deal a significant blow to both Imamoglu and the opposition.

Meanwhile, a new religious-conservative party called New Welfare Party (YRP) is appealing to voters disillusioned with Erdogan's handling of the economy and is expected to draw some votes away from his candidates. In Turkey's mainly Kurdish-populated southeast region, the DEM Party was poised to win many municipalities but it remains unclear whether it would be allowed to retain them. In previous years, Erdogan's government removed elected pro-Kurdish mayors from office for alleged links to Kurdish militants and replaced them with state-appointed trustees.

Erdogan has been advocating for a new constitution that would put family values at its core. He currently lacks sufficient votes for enacting such a constitution but a strong showing could allow him to woo some conservative or nationalist legislators from the opposition camp for a needed two-thirds majority. Berk Esen, an associate professor of political sciences at Istanbul's Sabanci University, said Erdogan is pushing for a new constitution "more conservative than the current version" to expand and define his legacy. "This would be a big opportunity for Erdogan to leave his political imprint," Esen added.