Trump-Xi Talks In South Korea Mark Thaw In Tensions—But at What Cost For Taiwan?

The leaders of China and the United States met face-to-face for the first time in over six years during the 32nd APEC Economic Ministers' Meeting held in South Korea on 30 October. The much-anticipated meeting between President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping, which lasted under two hours at Gimhae Air Base in Busan, marked a significant diplomatic moment-but also raised concerns over the U.S. stance on key geopolitical issues, especially Taiwan.

While the dialogue was seen as a positive development, critics have questioned the Trump administration's handling of China. During the meeting, Xi praised Trump for promoting "world peace," offered to purchase more American products, and announced a temporary reprieve on rare earth export restrictions.

However, analysts noted that China made minimal concessions, while the U.S. appeared to step back first by easing tariff pressures. Xi also hinted at more commercial cooperation in the future, effectively securing a truce in the ongoing trade war. Notably, Trump admitted Taiwan "never came up" during the discussion - a statement that drew immediate concern from foreign policy experts.

This omission came even as Beijing ramped up a propaganda campaign against Taiwan before the APEC summit. China's Taiwan Affairs Office warned that it "will not rule out force" to prevent Taiwanese independence, while Beijing revived "Taiwan's Restoration Day" (25 October), commemorating Japan's 1945 surrender in Taiwan - a symbolic move aimed at reinforcing China's sovereignty claims. Taipei condemned the act as an attempt to "belittle our country" and "fabricate claims that Taiwan belongs to the PRC."

Ukraine Discussed, Taiwan Ignored

Although Taiwan was avoided, the war in Ukraine was a key topic. Xi stated that "China and the U.S. must shoulder their responsibilities as major powers" and "work together for the good of both nations and the world."

Meanwhile, experts warned that China's military actions near Taiwan have intensified. According to K. Tristan Tang, Associate Fellow at the Research Project on China's Defence Affairs, Beijing's PLA (People's Liberation Army) has escalated air and naval operations around Taiwan throughout 2025, signaling a shift from politically motivated drills to a sustained military presence.
Tang noted record-high incursions across the median line, expanded joint combat patrols, and long-range drone missions encircling Taiwan - even during the typically calm Lunar New Year period. This, he said, highlights Beijing's focus on operational dominance and combat readiness, rather than symbolic political gestures.

Tang urged global policymakers to "recalibrate assessments" and focus on the PLA's "expanding operational footprint and long-term ambitions" rather than political rhetoric.

U.S. Officials Emphasize Balance of Power

Separately, U.S. Secretary of War Pete Hegseth met Chinese Defence Minister Admiral Dong Jun on 31 October in Kuala Lumpur, following a virtual meeting in September. Hegseth described the talk as "constructive," emphasizing the need to maintain a balance of power in the Indo-Pacific and voicing concerns over China's activities in the South China Sea and around Taiwan.

His use of the phrase "balance of power" appeared to acknowledge China as a near-peer competitor to U.S. military strength in the region.

China's Rapid Space Militarization

In September, Lieutenant General Douglas Schiess, Commander of U.S. Space Forces - Space, warned of China's expanding space capabilities. With over 1,189 satellites in orbit as of mid-2025-a 927% increase since 2015-China is developing a "space kill chain" to target U.S. military assets. Schiess cautioned that China's "counter-space capabilities" could threaten U.S. dominance in intelligence, surveillance, communication, and targeting.

He noted that the PLA is closing the technology gap with the U.S. "at an incredible pace."

Promises of Peace, Reality of Competition

Despite these concerns, Hegseth claimed that relations between the U.S. and China "have never been better." He and Xi both publicly called for "peace through strength, mutual respect, and positive relations."

Hegseth announced plans to establish military-to-military communication channels to prevent conflicts - though past experience suggests China often cuts such communication lines when tensions rise. During Trump's first term (2017-2021), most of the 90 communication channels between Washington and Beijing lay dormant, and Beijing later suspended all military contact after Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan.

U.S.-Philippines Alliance Strengthened

At the same ADMM+ meeting, the U.S. and the Philippines announced the creation of Task Force Philippines, a new joint military coordination body. According to the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, the unit will enhance cooperation, humanitarian response, and defense readiness, without establishing new combat bases.

This move follows China's aggressive actions against Philippine vessels and law enforcement agencies in the South China Sea, especially near Second Thomas Shoal.

Trade Concessions and Propaganda Wins

The White House lauded the Trump-Xi talks as a "massive victory" that safeguards U.S. economic and national security. The U.S. claimed China agreed to:

• Halt fentanyl precursor exports to the U.S.
• Lift export controls on rare earths and minerals.
• End retaliation against U.S. semiconductor firms.
• Open markets to U.S. soybeans and agricultural products.

However, analysts observed that Washington conceded key ground, including reducing tariffs on Chinese goods by 10%, suspending reciprocal tariffs until November 2026, and lifting end-user controls on Chinese-listed entities for a year.

In return, China agreed to import 25 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans annually between 2026-2028.

China's Narrative Gains Ground

Meanwhile, China and Russia have made major strides in information warfare. In an interview on 31 October, Cheng Li-wun, chair-elect of Taiwan's opposition Kuomintang (KMT), denied that Vladimir Putin was a dictator, claiming he was "democratically elected." She further blamed NATO's eastward expansion for the Ukraine war - echoing Kremlin propaganda narratives.

Analysts warn that such rhetoric aligns with Beijing's interests and undermines Taiwan's sovereignty.

A "Win-Win" for China

After months of strained U.S.-China exchanges, Beijing emerged from the APEC summit largely victorious. Trump hailed the outcome as a "twelve on a scale of ten," while Xi secured economic gains, international legitimacy, and continued freedom to pressure Taiwan - all without making major concessions.

As observers noted wryly, for China, the Trump-Xi meeting was indeed "win-win."

With Ani Input