Trump Says Iran Deal Chances Are ‘50/50’, Decision On Resuming War Expected By Sunday

President Trump said in an interview with Axios that a decision on resuming the war with Iran would likely come by Sunday, after meetings with negotiators and regional leaders. Trump planned to study Iran's latest proposal on Saturday and described the chances of reaching what Trump called a "good" agreement as a "solid 50/50."

Trump framed the choice in stark terms, telling Axios: "I think one of two things will happen: either I hit them harder than they have ever been hit, or we are going to sign a deal that is good." Trump added that he could either make a "good" deal or "blow them to kingdom come."

Trump Iran deal talks and regional mediation

Pakistani Field Marshal Asim Munir, who had been shuttling between the sides, left Tehran on Saturday after meetings with senior Iranian officials aimed at closing remaining gaps. Pakistan stated there had been "encouraging progress toward a final understanding," and the new draft Trump intended to review on Saturday reportedly originated from these Iran-Pakistan discussions.

According to Iran's foreign ministry spokesperson, Iran and the U.S. were already in the final phase of talks on a memorandum of understanding designed to end the war. The spokesperson said the planned MOU would cover a gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, removal of the U.S. blockade and the release of frozen Iranian funds, followed by 30-60 days of detailed negotiations.

Trump Iran deal positions and nuclear demands

Trump insisted that any outcome must address nuclear concerns, saying he would only accept an arrangement that tackled uranium enrichment and the future of Iran's existing stockpile. However, these technical nuclear questions were not expected to be settled in depth within the proposed MOU, which focused instead on halting the war and setting up broader negotiations.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Saturday that discussions had shown "some progress" and suggested "there might be some news later today." Rubio stressed that Iran could never possess a nuclear weapon and must surrender enriched uranium, while also stating that the Strait of Hormuz should be completely reopened "without tolls," positions that had clashed with Iran's stance so far.

Trump Iran deal regional politics and reactions

Regional diplomacy continued around the Trump Iran deal, with Gulf leaders expected to join a conference call with Trump to discuss the situation. The leaders of Egypt, Pakistan and Turkey were among the anticipated participants. A senior Israeli official said Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and aides were consulting closely with the White House about the emerging arrangement and its implications.

Trump said some regional leaders, and several of the president's advisers, argued he should accept the deal currently on offer. Others, according to Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), urged military strikes on Iran to weaken the regime and demand tougher terms. Those pushing against a deal warned that Iran could devastate Gulf oil facilities and that the Strait of Hormuz could not be fully protected from Iranian influence if conflict resumed.

Graham challenged that view, saying: "Count me as a strong skeptic that Iran can't be prevented from terrorizing the Strait of Hormuz and that we can't defend vital interests in the region after massive attacks against Iran — if they have been truly obliterated they shouldn't be able to do either. Time will tell. I am hoping for a good outcome still."

Inside the Trump administration, views also differed on the Trump Iran deal. Trump said "some people would much rather have a deal and others would rather resume the war," while rejecting claims that Netanyahu was "worried" about a weak agreement. Trump described Netanyahu as "torn," but Israeli officials said the prime minister remained highly concerned and had pressed Trump to order further strikes.

Trump planned to meet on Saturday with Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to assess Iran's latest response, with Vice President Vance also expected to participate. Regional intermediaries from Qatar, Egypt, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan were said to have engaged in intense efforts over the previous 24 hours, conducting multiple calls with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Witkoff to bridge remaining differences.

By late Saturday, Trump had not yet decided between escalating military action or moving ahead with the proposed memorandum to halt the conflict. With mediators still active, key nuclear and maritime issues remaining unresolved and regional leaders split, the Trump Iran deal talks continued to balance between a renewed war and a limited framework for further negotiations.