Third time unlucky: Nawaz Sharif is down, but not out as yet

The latest threat to his premiership began with the leak of Panama Papers last year in April

Nawaz Sharif resigned as Prime Minister after being disqualified by the highest court of Pakistan as well as being barred from electoral office for a further five years.

This though a big event for any leader of any country in the world, is nothing new for Sharif. He's been in this situation before and suffered similar consequences. The details of the turmoil this time though are different, and his personal future in Pakistani politics a doubt.

He was earlier dismissed in 1993 by the President over corruption allegations and restored by the Supreme Court. But had to step down again after the then Pakistani Army Chief persuaded by the army chief. Two years into his second stint, he was ousted in the 1999 coup by another army chief, General Pervez Musharraf, who he had appointed.

Despite suffering such fate, he has still managed to find his way back into the mix of things and win elections. Such resilience is what makes righting him off too quickly an unwise thing to do, no matter what the odds this time.

The latest threat to his premiership began with the leak of Panama Papers last year in April, with a leak of 11 million documents from the Panama based law firm, Mossack Fonseca. They listed names of those holding offshore bank accounts considered to be used for unaccounted money and included people many of whom are famous.

The problem for Sharif began as the documents revealed that Sharif's three children, sons Hussein and Hassan along with daughter Maryam, were registered beneficiaries of three offshore companies.

This led to the Supreme Court of Pakistan to order a formation of Joint Investigative Team (JIT) after pressure from the main opposition party Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) and its leader Imran Khan. The JIT looked into the matter whether Sharif or his family members had gotten financial benefits illegally and whether he had lied to the public about his assets and laundered money with his family.

The report submitted to the court by the JIT confirmed many of the allegations like the family had could not account for its vast wealth and had tried to give falsified information on the team. It is on the basis of this report that the Apex court of Pakistan has based its judgment and also ordered a criminal investigation against Sharif and members of his family

The Supreme Court said that the Election Commission of Pakistan should de-seat the PM for not disclosing his role in the Dubai based Capital FZE company in his nomination papers. Justice Ejaz Khan who headed the bench announced that the court unanimously deemed Nawaz Sharif unfit from holding office.

This has now led Pakistan, already with a history of turmoil in terms of upholding democracy, as the Generals of the country have been trigger-happy when it comes to replacing elected leaders and have not let any democratic government survive five years till date, into another period of uncertainty. A fact, that few know better than Sharif.

Roles played by the Army and Pakistan intelligence service, ISI, are already being talked about. As many have claimed that the information that the JIT was able to get its hands was not possible without the help from the country's military establishment.

Though it may be hard to believe now, Sharif was not always on the wrong side of Army. In fact, he was used for the role, which is being played by Imran Khan now with the help of the establishment to destabilize him. Sharif was used in the 90's by the military establishment to destabilize Benazir Bhutto's elected government.

But all seems to have not been over for Sharif yet. And Khan might not get to be the elected leader of the country as soon as he thinks or hopes. As even though he is disqualified, if Sharif is able to keep his party together and be able to play the victim card when next elections are held next year, the chances of his party, Pakistan Muslim League (N), winning are still high. This is so as he is still politically stable and his vote-bank intact even though he suffered a blow from the Panama controversy.

And in this attempt keep his party together, the search for his successor has garnered much limelight. With his brother Shehbaz, widely expected to eventually take over as Prime Minister, if Sharif gets his way. Shehbaz Sharif is currently the Chief Minister of the Punjab province, and will not be able to take over immediately given that he is not a member of the National Assembly.

This has led to Defence Minister, Khawaja Asif, being seen as the frontrunner to be interim Prime Minister for 45 days till Shehbaz is elected in by-polls. Such a steady movement from Sharif's party would ensure that it does not break up.

It will now depend on what the military establishment wants, and whether they would help Imran Khan to help break up the PML (N). Whether the Army does this or not will also be able to allow observers to understand how big a role did it play in Sharif losing his job.

All the while, the world, especially western powers, China and India will be watching the developments in the country with a keen eye, given Pakistan's importance into the happenings in Afghanistan and its neighbouring countries. India, on the other hand, will be waiting to see whom it has to talk to and what their take would be on Kashmir and terrorism. By the end of it all, Sharif might still come out being the main man when it comes to the government, running it from behind the scenes.

OneIndia News