The War U.S, Iran Are Fighting And The Games Russia, China Are Playing

The US and Israel are fighting Iran militarily. But there are two other players in this conflict who haven't fired a single shot, and they may end up winning the most. Those players are Russia and China.

Araghchi's diplomatic sprint

Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has been on a whirlwind tour. After meeting mediators in Pakistan and Oman, he landed in Russia, making Moscow his most significant stop. He met President Putin in St. Petersburg, where Putin praised the Iranian people for fighting for their independence and sovereignty, and said Russia was ready to do "everything that serves your interests." That's a very strong signal of diplomatic solidarity.

Before Moscow, Araghchi met Oman's Sultan and foreign minister, with their discussions focused on ensuring safe transit through the Strait of Hormuz, the waterway through which about one-fifth of the world's oil and gas used to flow before the war.

Russia's play: Keep America stuck

Russia isn't just offering warm words. According to reports, Moscow has been sharing intelligence with Tehran- satellite imagery and signals intelligence - helping Iran with targeting and damage assessment. It has also upgraded Iran's Shahed drones using lessons from its own battlefield experience in Ukraine, and is reportedly sharing those improvements back with Tehran.

But Russia's bigger gain is more subtle. The Trump administration waived sanctions on Russian oil to rein in rising energy prices - giving Moscow an economic windfall. And every day the US is bogged down in the Gulf, Russia breathes easier on its western front.

China's play: Planes full of support, hands that look clean

China's game is more calculated. Reports indicate that more than 16 Chinese military cargo planes landed in Tehran within just 56 hours before the war intensified - believed to be carrying air defence systems, electronic warfare equipment, and possibly anti-ship missiles.

More recently, six Chinese military cargo planes reportedly landed in Iran during the ceasefire period, with cargo believed to include man-portable air-defence systems and radar components.

China sees no real strategic value in overtly entering the conflict. Instead, Beijing is trying to position itself as a continued friend to Iran - whose oil it heavily depends upon - while remaining outwardly neutral so it can maintain deniability after the war is over.

On the diplomatic front, China has been presenting itself as a responsible peacemaker - measured statements, mediation offers, pushing for ceasefires. China and Pakistan jointly announced a five-point proposal calling for a ceasefire and resumption of normal navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. It looks like statesmanship. But behind the scenes, the supply chains keep flowing.

What does all this add up to?

Think of it this way: when the US was consumed by wars in Iraq and Afghanistan after 9/11, China quietly rose to become the world's second-largest economy. Now, with the US enmeshed in the Gulf again, both Moscow and Beijing see history repeating itself, in their favour.

The core argument is this: neither Russia nor China wants Iran destroyed, but they also don't want Iran to win decisively. What they want is a long, draining, reputation-damaging conflict that keeps America busy, fractures its alliances with Europe, and erodes the idea of a US-led world order. So far, they're getting exactly that.