Texas Border County's Historic Shift: From Generations of Democratic Support to Trump Victory

Jorge Bazán, whose family has resided on the US-Mexico border for generations, traditionally supported Democrats. This year, however, he voted for Donald Trump, citing distrust in Democratic economic policies. "I think they forgot about the middle class," said Bazán, who works for a utility company in Rio Grande City. "People are suffering right now. Everything's very expensive."

The South Texas region, historically a Democratic bastion, saw a significant shift towards Trump in 2020. This trend continued when Trump flipped several counties along the border, including Hidalgo and Cameron, the most populous in the Rio Grande Valley. In Starr County, where Bazán lives, voters backed a Republican presidential candidate for the first time in a century.

Shift in Political Landscape

Starr County is predominantly Hispanic and working-class, with a median household income of USD 36,000. Trump secured a 16 percentage-point victory over Vice President Kamala Harris there. The Rio Grande Valley's results highlighted a nationwide trend of working-class voters leaning Republican. Many Democrats believed Trump's immigration policies would deter voters along the Texas border.

Luis Meza, a 32-year-old voter from Starr County, switched from Democrat to Republican due to the current political climate. "I felt that going Republican was the better choice," Meza said, citing immigration issues as a key factor. Initially against Trump, Meza saw little change under President Joe Biden to justify voting for Harris.

Republican Gains in South Texas

Biden's win in Hidalgo County was by less than half the margin Hillary Clinton achieved in 2016. Since then, Republicans have invested heavily to win over Hispanic and working-class voters disillusioned with Democratic policies. This scenario mirrored the state's three most competitive races in nearby counties.

Republican Rep. Monica De La Cruz won decisively in the 15th Congressional District. In two other races, experienced Democratic incumbents narrowly retained their seats. Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar barely avoided defeat against a newcomer in his most challenging race yet.

Democratic Struggles and Voter Concerns

Cuellar's district includes Rio Grande City; he faced bribery charges this year for allegedly accepting $600,000 from companies in Mexico and Azerbaijan. His stance on abortion restrictions makes him one of the House's most conservative Democrats. Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez also narrowly defeated an opponent he had easily beaten two years prior.

Nationally, Black and Latino voters showed slightly less support for Harris compared to Biden four years ago, according to AP VoteCast data. More than half of Hispanic voters backed Harris, but this was down from about six in ten who supported Biden in 2020. Trump's support among these groups appeared to increase slightly compared to 2020.

Voter Sentiments and Future Implications

In McAllen, Texas, Jose Luis Borrego voted Republican for the first time due to inflation and promises of stricter border controls. "I wanted to see change and that's why I did vote for Trump," Borrego said. He previously voted for Hillary Clinton and Independent Sen. Bernie Sanders.

Borrego's entire family supported Trump because they felt they had no other comfortable choice. Republican Sen. Ted Cruz noted his campaign visits to the region during his race against Democratic U.S. Rep. Colin Allred.

Cruz claimed Hispanic voters are leaving Democrats due to immigration issues: "They are coming home to conservative values they never left." Michael Mireles from La Unión del Pueblo Entero believes Democrats failed to engage Hispanic voters on key issues.

"I think that folks on the Democratic side have been really slow to have those conversations with Latino households and families," Mireles said after Election Day in Hidalgo County. "We can't wait for a big election to have those conversations."