Tarique Rahman And The India-Bangladesh Reset: Can BNP's Return Rebuild Trust And Stabilise Ties?

Summary:

Tarique Rahman's leadership is being closely watched as a potential turning point that could stabilise India-Bangladesh relations through pragmatic cooperation on security, trade, minorities and regional diplomacy, while balancing Bangladesh's sovereignty and domestic political pressures.

The political ascent of Tarique Rahman and the Bangladesh Nationalist Party marks one of the most consequential shifts in South Asian geopolitics since the fall of Sheikh Hasina's government in 2024.

For India, the stakes are unusually high. Bangladesh is not just a neighbour, it is a strategic partner in security, connectivity, trade and regional stability.
The question now is whether Rahman, long seen as a controversial figure with a turbulent political past, can emerge as the bridge that stabilises relations between New Delhi and Dhaka.
A pro-India assessment would suggest that his leadership presents an opportunity. A balanced one must acknowledge that it also carries risks. The answer lies in understanding both his political evolution and the compulsions shaping India-Bangladesh ties.

Who is Tarique Rahman, and why his return matters

Tarique Rahman is the son of Bangladesh's former president Ziaur Rahman and former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia, and has long been the political heir to the BNP.

His early years in politics were marked by controversy. During the BNP's last stint in power (2001-2006), he was widely seen as operating from a parallel power centre in Dhaka, influencing decisions without holding formal office.

He faced multiple corruption and security-related allegations, was arrested during a military-backed crackdown in 2007, and left Bangladesh for medical treatment in the United Kingdom, where he remained for years.

His return followed the political churn triggered by Sheikh Hasina's ouster and subsequent changes in Bangladesh's internal power dynamics. By the time he re-entered active politics, Rahman had begun projecting himself differently, as a pragmatic nationalist rather than a confrontational power broker.

This transformation is central to India's calculations.

Why India is watching closely

India and Bangladesh share one of the most complex bilateral relationships in Asia. The two nations carry a legacy of:
• A 4,000-km land border
• 54 shared rivers
• deep trade and energy links
• cross-border security concerns

For New Delhi, stability in Dhaka is inseparable from stability in India's northeast.
Under Sheikh Hasina, India enjoyed, perhaps, its closest ever partnership with Bangladesh, marked by intelligence cooperation, connectivity projects and economic integration.

However, her ouster in 2024 created uncertainty. Reports of violence against minorities, rising anti-India sentiment and Bangladesh's outreach to China and Pakistan unsettled New Delhi's strategic calculus.

Rahman's emergence therefore comes at a time when both sides need a reset.

Why Rahman may be better for India than Jamaat

In strategic terms, India views the BNP as a difficult but negotiable partner, unlike Islamist formations that could harden ideological positions.

The Islamist party Jamaat-e-Islami has historically taken positions perceived in India as hostile, particularly on identity politics and regional security.

A BNP government under Rahman, by contrast, signals: a nationalist but state-centric policy, economic development as priority, and engagement with multiple powers rather than ideological alignment.

This makes him a workable partner for India's "neighbourhood first" approach, even if not a natural ally.

The baggage of misrust from the past

India's caution is rooted in history. During BNP rule in the early 2000s, Indian security agencies accused Dhaka of allowing insurgent groups targeting India's northeast to operate from Bangladeshi territory.

These included groups like the ULFA and NSCN factions.

Additionally, BNP's rhetoric often portrayed India as hegemonic, especially on issues like water-sharing, transit access and trade imbalance. This legacy still shapes Indian thinking.

Rahman must therefore not just promise cooperation, he must demonstrate it through policy and security action.

The new messaging: pragmatic nationalism

Rahman's recent speeches and political positioning suggest a recalibrated approach. He projects commitment to sovereignty without confrontation, emphasis on inclusive governance, signals of safety for minorities, and economic growth and regional connectivity.

He has avoided overt anti-India rhetoric even when nationalist sentiment surged domestically after Hasina fled to India.

This restraint is significant. It indicates recognition that Bangladesh's stability depends on managing, not antagonising, India.

What experts say about his potential role

Strategic observers believe Rahman's leadership could open a window for diplomatic recalibration.

Analysts argue:

• A democratically elected government provides India a legitimate counterpart after dealing cautiously with interim administrations.
• BNP's need for economic revival makes engagement with India inevitable.
• Bangladesh will likely adopt a balancing strategy between India and China rather than exclusive alignment.

This "multi-vector diplomacy" could actually stabilise the region, if handled carefully
How Rahman can bring peace: 5 real levers

1. Security cooperation
The single biggest trust-building step would be preventing anti-India insurgent groups from using Bangladeshi territory.

This was the cornerstone of India-Bangladesh cooperation under Hasina. If Rahman sustains it, mistrust will recede quickly.

2. Minority protection
India's domestic politics and public opinion are deeply sensitive to the treatment of Hindus in Bangladesh. Firm action against communal violence would send the strongest message of goodwill.

3. Trade and connectivity
Bangladesh is among India's largest trading partners in South Asia. Expanding the three crucial parameters of
• energy trade
• transport corridors
• border infrastructure
would shift the relationship from political suspicion to economic interdependence.

4. Water diplomacy
Disputes over rivers such as Teesta remain emotive. A cooperative framework, even incremental, would demonstrate maturity and shared interests.

5. Strategic balancing without hostility
Rahman is expected to maintain ties with China and other powers. India's interest is not exclusivity, but assurance that Bangladesh will not allow strategic encirclement.
A balanced Bangladesh is acceptable. An adversarial one is not.

Domestic constraints he cannot ignore

Rahman's room for manoeuvre is limited by internal politics.
• Youth movements in Bangladesh are sceptical of India
• Nationalist sentiment demands visible autonomy
• Islamist forces remain politically relevant

Any overt pro-India tilt could be politically costly. This means peace-building will likely be gradual, not dramatic.

The opportunity for India

For New Delhi, the approach will likely be pragmatic rather than emotional. Engage early, deepen economic cooperation, and rebuild security coordination.

India has already signalled this through diplomatic outreach and public messaging from Prime Minister Narendra Modi emphasising a democratic, inclusive Bangladesh and shared development goals.

If both sides move cautiously, the relationship could stabilise into a mature partnership rather than a personality-driven alliance.

Tarique Rahman: from "dark prince" to bridge-builder?

Rahman's biggest challenge is credibility. His past, allegations, exile, and the BNP's contentious legacy, continues to shadow his leadership. But politics in South Asia often rewards reinvention.

If he delivers on:
• institutional governance
• minority protection
• security cooperation
• economic modernisation
he could reposition Bangladesh as a stabilising force in the region.

For India, that would mean a neighbour that is assertive yet cooperative, independent yet not adversarial

Conclusion: Peace through pragmatism

Tarique Rahman will not recreate the Hasina-era alignment with India. Nor is he likely to pursue ideological hostility.
Instead, his success, and the peace between India and Bangladesh, will depend on pragmatic statecraft.

The logic is simple. India and Bangladesh are glued by geography, add to that the fact that economics connects them, and security compels cooperation.
If Rahman recognises these fundamentals and acts accordingly, he could help transform a period of suspicion into one of structured engagement.
That would not just stabilise India-Bangladesh ties. It would anchor peace across eastern South Asia.'

(Kirti Pandey is a senior journalist and writer covering politics, society, culture, and public policy. She writes sharp, research-driven analysis and features rooted in history and contemporary realities.
With experience across television and digital media, she has reported on governance, health, gender, and the economy. Her work is known for clear, narrative storytelling that makes complex issues accessible to everyday readers.)