Syrian Insurgents Conduct Large-Scale Offensive Against Government Forces in Northwest Region

Syrian opposition groups have launched a significant offensive against government-held areas in northwestern Syria, according to reports from opposition sources. The government and its allies responded with airstrikes and shelling to counter the insurgent advances. This escalation has displaced thousands of families and forced aid organisations to halt some services. The Syrian Civil Defence, known as the White Helmets, reported that at least 18 people, including children and women, were killed in western Aleppo due to airstrikes.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights attributed these airstrikes to Russian warplanes. Syrian armed forces stated that Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) led the offensive, violating a de-escalation agreement. The attacks have targeted several villages and military bases. Turkey, Russia, and Iran had previously reached an agreement in late 2019 to freeze conflict lines in Idlib province, preventing government advances.

Escalating Conflict in Northwestern Syria

Opposition factions began their offensive early on Wednesday, claiming control over more than 15 villages in northwestern Aleppo. They also captured a military base and took soldiers hostage. The offensive expanded into Idlib province's countryside on Thursday, where government forces control a major highway and a strategic town previously held by insurgents. These claims could not be independently verified by the Associated Press.

The opposition fighters assert that their offensive will enable the return of thousands of displaced individuals who fled recent government bombardments. This follows weeks of increased violence in the area, with activists noting intensified bombardment by government and allied Russian forces on the last remaining opposition stronghold.

Humanitarian Impact and International Response

The International Rescue Committee reported that at least 7,000 families have been newly displaced due to escalating hostilities. Some schools and health facilities have suspended services, including those run by the IRC. Meanwhile, Iran-linked groups supporting Syrian government forces since 2015 have been distracted by their own domestic conflicts.

Israel and Hezbollah have been engaged in a conflict that intensified since September, with a cease-fire announced on Wednesday—the same day the Syrian opposition factions launched their offensive. Israel has also increased attacks against Hezbollah and Iran-linked targets in Syria over the past 70 days.

Regional Dynamics and Military Movements

Formerly known as the Nusra Front, HTS has distanced itself from al-Qaida after changing its name multiple times. Russia and Iran supported Syrian government forces soon after anti-government protests turned into war in 2011. Turkey has backed various opposition forces and established a military presence in parts of northwestern Syria.

The United States has supported Syrian Kurdish forces fighting Islamic State militants primarily in eastern Syria. Turkey stated it is closely monitoring the opposition's offensive in northern Syria. Turkish military officials said they have taken "all kinds of measures" to protect troops stationed there.

Turkish security officials noted that Syrian opposition groups initially launched a "limited" offensive towards Aleppo, expanding as government forces retreated. The officials mentioned that opposition groups in Idlib had long planned an offensive to expel government forces to protect civilians but were previously prevented by Turkey to avoid regional tensions.

The aim of this offensive is reportedly to reestablish boundaries within the de-escalation zone, according to Turkish officials. Despite diplomatic efforts by Turkey to prevent government attacks, these attempts were unsuccessful, leading to the current situation.