Syrian Insurgents Capture Aleppo and Move Towards Hama Province Amidst Government Weakness

Thousands of Syrian insurgents, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, launched a significant offensive on Aleppo. They quickly took control of the city and its airport, facing minimal resistance from government forces. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights confirmed the capture of Aleppo International Airport, marking it as the first international airport under insurgent control. Fighters shared images from the airport to assert their claim.

In a swift move, insurgents advanced into northern Hama province, an area they previously occupied before being ousted in 2016. By Saturday evening, they claimed to have entered Hama city. This rapid offensive is a major setback for President Bashar Assad and raises concerns about his military's readiness. The attack seemed meticulously planned over years and coincided with Assad's allies being distracted by their own conflicts.

Insurgents' Strategic Moves

The insurgents' operation began with a two-pronged assault on Aleppo and Idlib countryside. They entered Aleppo two days later, capturing a key town on the highway linking Syria's largest city to the capital and coast. By Saturday evening, they had seized at least four towns in central Hama province and claimed entry into its capital. Their previous attempt to reclaim Hama in 2017 was unsuccessful.

Turkey, a key supporter of Syrian opposition groups, stated that diplomatic efforts failed to halt government attacks on opposition-held areas. These actions violated a de-escalation agreement sponsored by Russia, Iran, and Turkey. Turkish officials mentioned that a limited rebel offensive was initially planned to stop government attacks and allow civilian return but expanded as government forces retreated.

Government Response and Counterattack Plans

Syria's armed forces announced on Saturday that they were redeploying troops and equipment to counter the large-scale attack on Aleppo while preparing a counteroffensive. The statement acknowledged insurgent entry into significant parts of the city but denied any establishment of bases or checkpoints by them. Later, the armed forces refuted claims of retreat or defection, asserting their commitment to combatting terrorist organisations.

The insurgents' return to Aleppo is their first since 2016 after a harsh military campaign where Assad's forces were supported by Russia, Iran, and allied groups. The 2016 battle for Aleppo was pivotal in the conflict between Syrian government forces and rebels following the 2011 protests against Assad's rule that escalated into full-scale war.

Impact on Regional Dynamics

The recent offensive threatens to reignite Syria's civil war, which had been mostly stagnant for years. Late Friday saw airstrikes targeting insurgent reinforcements near Aleppo city, resulting in 20 fighter casualties according to the Observatory. Insurgents were filmed outside police headquarters and Aleppo citadel, tearing down Assad posters in defiance.

The push into Aleppo followed weeks of low-level violence, including government attacks on opposition-held areas. The offensive coincided with Iran-linked groups like Lebanon's Hezbollah being engaged in domestic conflicts. A ceasefire in Hezbollah's two-month war with Israel began Wednesday, aligning with the Syrian opposition's offensive announcement.

Voices from Aleppo

Opposition fighter Mohammad Al Abdo expressed his return to Aleppo after 13 years since his brother's death at war onset. "God willing, the rest of Aleppo province will be liberated from government forces," he stated from Saadallah Aljabri square. On Saturday, light traffic was observed in the city centre with opposition fighters celebrating without signs of clashes or government troops present.

This development underscores the fragile state of affairs in Syria as various factions vie for control amidst ongoing regional tensions.