Syrian Government Forces Withdraw from Homs as Insurgent Offensive Gains Momentum

The insurgents' rapid advance in Syria has reached the outskirts of Damascus, with government forces retreating from Homs. This development forced the government to deny rumours of President Bashar Assad fleeing. Losing Homs is a significant setback for Assad, as it connects Damascus with the coastal provinces of Latakia and Tartus, which are crucial for his support base and house a Russian naval base.

Strategic Losses and Rebel Gains

The pro-government Sham FM reported that government troops have repositioned outside Homs without further details. Rami Abdurrahman from the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights confirmed that Syrian forces and security personnel have left Homs, allowing rebels to enter parts of the city. The capture of Homs marks a major victory for insurgents who have already taken Aleppo, Hama, and large areas in the south since their offensive began on November 27.

The fall of Homs is seen as a pivotal moment by analysts. The rebels' movement around Damascus follows the Syrian army's withdrawal from much of the southern region, leaving several provincial capitals under opposition control. These recent advances are among the most significant by opposition groups in years, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a group with roots in al-Qaida and labelled a terrorist organisation by the US and UN.

International Reactions and Concerns

For the first time in Syria's prolonged civil war, the government controls only three of 14 provincial capitals: Damascus, Latakia, and Tartus. Geir Pedersen, the UN's special envoy for Syria, called for urgent talks in Geneva to facilitate an "orderly political transition." Speaking at the Doha Forum in Qatar, he noted that Syria's situation is rapidly evolving. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov expressed sympathy for the Syrian people amidst these developments.

In Damascus, residents are stocking up on essentials amid fears of conflict reaching the capital. Thousands are attempting to flee to Lebanon. Many shops have closed, while those open face shortages and inflated prices. A resident described the situation as unusual and concerning, fearing potential battles in Damascus.

Assad's Position Amidst Turmoil

State media dismissed rumours about Assad leaving Syria, asserting he remains active in Damascus. His allies have provided minimal support; Russia is preoccupied with its conflict in Ukraine, Hezbollah is weakened by ongoing clashes with Israel, and Iran's regional proxies have been diminished by Israeli airstrikes. US President-elect Donald Trump advised against US military involvement in Syria.

Pedersen mentioned that a date for Geneva talks on implementing a 2015 UN resolution would be announced soon. This resolution outlines a Syrian-led political process involving a transitional governing body, drafting a new constitution, and UN-supervised elections.

Diplomatic Efforts in Doha

Foreign ministers from eight key countries met at the Doha Summit to discuss Syria's situation. Rami Abdurrahman reported that insurgents were present in Damascus suburbs like Maadamiyah and Jaramana. Opposition fighters are advancing towards Harasta. Hassan Abdul-Ghani announced on Telegram that they are encircling Damascus as part of their final offensive stage.

HTS controls much of northwest Syria and established a "salvation government" there in 2017. Its leader Abu Mohammed al-Golani has attempted to reshape its image by severing ties with al-Qaida and promoting pluralism. The offensive began on November 27 with rebels capturing Aleppo and Hama.

Opposition activists reported that insurgents entered Palmyra recently. In southern Syria, troops withdrew from Quneitra province, including Baath City. The army stated it was redeploying to form a defensive belt around Damascus after attacks on its checkpoints.

Iranian, Russian, and Turkish foreign ministers called for an end to hostilities during their meeting in Qatar. Turkey supports the rebels while Qatar's Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani criticised Assad for not using recent lulls to address Syria's issues. He warned that without urgent political action, Syria's territorial integrity is at risk due to rapid rebel advances.