Swing States: Heart Of US 2024 Elections And Voter Sentiments

As Americans vote in the presidential poll on Tuesday (November 5), people across the world will be closely watching the important 'swing states' as votes are counted in the race between Vice-President Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump. But what are swing states and which ones are the key in the 2024 election?

Swing states, known also as the 'battleground' or 'toss-up states', are those where both the Republicans and the Democrats have a strong probability of winning. These states are very important as they can become the decisive factor in which candidate becomes president. Let us explore the history of the seven important swing states that could decide whether Harris or Trump becomes the next president.

Both candidates have travelled extensively through these seven important swing states-Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin-to try to win over undecided voters and discuss the issues that matter most to them. Even though voters in swing states have similar worries as other Americans, some issues matter more to them. The economy is their top concern as Election Day approaches.

Todd Belt, director of George Washington University's Political Management programme, told ABC News that the main issue for voters remains the economy. He explained that the economy includes several parts-such as how fast it is growing, the number of jobless people, consumer confidence and the inflation rate.

A recent ABC News-Ipsos survey found that 44% of Americans feel they are worse off financially now than when President Joe Biden took office. This is the lowest level of positive feelings about the economy seen since 1986. Even though inflation has fallen and more people have jobs, most Americans have not felt the benefits.

A recent survey shows that 59% believe the economy is getting worse, while only 23% think it is improving. Among voters who feel the economy is declining, Trump is preferred over Harris by a large margin, with 74% supporting him compared to 21% backing Harris.

A 538 poll analysis-originally FiveThirtyEight, a US website that focused on opinion poll analysis, politics, economics and sports blogging in the country-reveals that almost all swing states consider the economy a major concern for voters, although the specific reasons differ. Belt noted that the economy was the "top issue everywhere", regardless of location.

In Nevada, the economy heavily relies on the hospitality sector, which makes it a key concern for voters there. Clark County-a region in Nevada that includes Las Vegas, one of the state's major cities, and with a large population, is central to Nevada's economy, especially because of its focus on tourism and hospitality.

It is home to Las Vegas, holds about 75% of the state's population and includes a large number of hospitality workers, highlighting the importance of this industry to local livelihoods. Due to these reasons, Nevada voters view the economy as the most important issue for their state, as shown in the 538 poll analysis.

Housing Costs, Fracking, Immigration

Affordable housing is also a key concern for voters in such swing states as Nevada and North Carolina, where home prices have risen sharply.

In North Carolina, the median home price jumped from $193,200 in the 2017-2019 survey to $280,600 in the 2020-2022 survey. This is the seventh-highest increase by percentage in the US, according to the American Community Survey.

In Nevada, home values have risen by 34% since President Biden took office, which is slightly higher than the national growth rate, according to Zillow, an online real estate marketplace where people can search for home listings, view property values and track housing market trends across the US. It provides information on home prices, rent estimates and other real estate data.

The prices of groceries, gas and housing are important issues for voters in many swing states, Belt noted. The economy is all about cost of living, according to Belt. It is what is called a 'kitchen table' or 'pocketbook' issue-covering such things as groceries and gas, and, most talked about, the rising housing costs.

In Pennsylvania, a key battleground state, fracking-a method of extracting oil and gas from underground rock-is a major local issue that impacts both the economy and the environment.

Immigration is an important issue for many voters in swing states, especially in the Sun Belt. Arizona, a border state, is a frequent stop for both Trump and Harris, where they often address immigration. It is also a top concern in Nevada, where Hispanic and Latino people make up 28% of the population, making them the largest minority group in the state. The media has highlighted immigration as a major issue, says Belt.

Trump has criticized Harris's immigration policies, blaming her directly for the border situation and often calling her, inaccurately, the "border czar". Belt notes that immigration is often linked to other major issues, such as crime-a connection Trump has used during his campaign. Although US citizens commit crimes at higher rates than undocumented immigrants, Trump, during a campaign stop in Wisconsin in September, labelled them as "criminals" who would "cut your throat".

Last week in Tempe, Arizona, Trump criticized how the Biden-Harris Administration has managed the border, referring to the US as a "garbage can for the world".

Abortion: An Issue Close to the Heart

Abortion has become a major issue for voters after the Supreme Court, in 2022, overturned Roe vs Wade, which had guaranteed the constitutional right to abortion. The Supreme Court decision, which Trump frequently takes credit for, has become an issue that Democrats are focusing on in this election cycle. According to Belt, Democrats see this issue as a major weakness for Republicans in recent elections.

Abortion continues to be a key issue for Democrats, who managed to prevent a "red wave" in the 2022 midterms by focusing on this topic. Harris's campaign says that reproductive freedom is still one of the top concerns for undecided voters. In such states as Arizona and Nevada, voters are being given the opportunity to decide if their state constitutions should include specific language that protects the right to an abortion.

These ballot measures, if approved, would officially recognize and safeguard abortion rights at the state level, making it more difficult for future laws to impose restrictions. This step has become particularly significant after the 2022 Supreme Court decision, which removed federal protection for abortion and left it up to individual states to set their own rules. By voting on these measures, residents can have a direct say in whether abortion rights are preserved in their state.

Polls indicate that abortion is a bigger issue for voters in Wisconsin than in the rest of the country, according to a 538 poll analysis. After the Roe vs Wade judgment, abortion became a heavily debated topic in Wisconsin. This led to a 15-month period during which no legal abortions took place due to an 1849 law that banned abortion and made it a crime.

Despite other issues being important in swing states, Belt says both Harris and Trump make an effort to connect their messages back to the economy. Trump often discusses how immigration affects the economy and jobs. They bring up related issues, but connect them to the economy, knowing that is the main concern for voters, he adds.