Putin Set To Win Russian Election, Kremlin Aims For Landslide Victory

There are no surprises expected regarding the winner of Russia's presidential election this coming weekend, with incumbent Vladimir Putin set to secure a fifth term in office, thus keeping him in power until at least 2030.

The heavily stage-managed vote, taking place from Friday to Sunday, is not expected to yield any nasty surprises for the Kremlin, which was told by CNBC months ago that it was confident Putin would win the vote comfortably. This is particularly the case in a country where Russian opposition figures are not represented on the ballot paper or in mainstream politics, with most activists having fled the country.

Photo Credit: PTI

Overview of Russia's 2024 Presidential Election and Political Landscape

Those who have stayed have found themselves arrested or imprisoned or have died in mysterious circumstances, as was the case with jailed opposition leader Alexei Navalny. It has been denied by the Kremlin that it had any hand in his death. In the 2024 election, there is no doubt regarding the winner of the vote; Putin's name is on the ballot paper along with only three other candidates who are part of Russia's "systemic opposition":

Vladislav Davankov of the New People party, Leonid Slutsky from the Liberal Democratic Party (LDPR), and Communist Party candidate Nikolay Kharitonov. Seen as token political opponents whose parties are generally supportive of the government, their inclusion on the ballot paper is designed to lend a degree of respectability to the vote and a semblance of plurality to Russia's effectively autocratic political system. Putin has been in power either as president or prime minister since late 1999 and shows no sign of being ready to relinquish control of the country.

He is backed by a loyal inner circle and retains the support of Russia's security services. Reflecting the Kremlin's nervousness over any potential for an electoral upset, however, even candidates who were only marginally representative of the "non-systemic opposition," such as anti-war hopefuls Yekaterina Duntsova and Boris Nadezhdin, were barred from participating in the election by Russia's Central Election Commission.

The ban was widely seen as politically motivated. Looking for a landslide, over 110 million Russian citizens are eligible to vote in the election, as well as an estimated 6 million people living in four partially Russian-occupied territories in the south and east of Ukraine, much to Kyiv's disdain.

Putin's approval rating in Russia stands at the highest level since 2016, at 86% in February, according to the independent Levada Center, although analysts like Andrei Kolesnikov, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, note that Putin's "power model" is heavily reliant on two unstable mainstays: "passive conformism and fear."

Both factors have certainly been amplified since Russia invaded its neighbor Ukraine in February 2022, with any perceived criticism of Russia's "special military operation" - portrayed as a glorious and patriotic defense of Russia's homeland - potentially leading citizens to incarceration. The fact that 315,000 Russian soldiers are estimated to have been wounded or killed in the conflict is not a subject the Kremlin will address publicly; Russia does not release death or casualty figures.

The Kremlin will be hoping to observe high voter turnout in this election - the first time a presidential vote has been held over three days - and is anticipating a significant victory for Putin to legitimize the war, analysts note. "The Kremlin seeks an election result that would demonstrate overwhelming public support for Putin and, by extension, his domestic and foreign policy agenda," commented Andreas Tursa, central and eastern Europe advisor at consultancy Teneo, on Thursday.

"The Kremlin is using the electoral contest to reaffirm Putin's legitimacy, mobilize public support for his policies, and showcase unity and determination to its external adversaries," he added, with the Kremlin looking for a "landslide victory." "According to official data, Putin received 77.5% of valid votes in the 2018 presidential election that saw a turnout of 67.5%. This year, both figures could be even higher," he said. "Putin does not face any real competition in the vote, and if needed, electoral authorities have various tools at their disposal to engineer the desired turnout and result.

Overview of Election Dynamics and Criticisms

• The preference is to achieve the election result with minimal interference, as noted by analysts.
• Rising authoritarianism in Russia and the erosion of democracy under Putin's tenure have sparked widespread criticism.
• The 2024 election has already faced condemnation from opposition activists and neighbouring Ukraine.
• Ukraine strongly criticized voting in Crimea, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Donetsk, and Luhansk, labelling it illegal and urging citizens not to participate.
• Reports have emerged of coercion and illegitimate voting practices, including armed soldiers accompanying pro-Russian officials.
• Russian opposition activists, often in self-imposed exile, have condemned the election and called for voting against Putin.
• Yulia Navalnaya, widow of Alexei Navalny, urged voters to choose "any candidate except Putin" and called on the West to not recognize the election result.
• Kremlin opponents have urged supporters abroad to protest outside Russian embassies.
• Dmitrii Moskovii, an opposition activist, highlighted the chance for protests to express opposition to Putin and the war.
• Analysts suggest that the Kremlin appears indifferent to the semblance of free and fair elections, with the 2024 vote facing less scrutiny than previous ones.
• Changes in electoral laws in Russia have made meaningful monitoring virtually impossible and significantly restricted the role of the media.
• The Kremlin's objective extends beyond mere victory to achieving a landslide result in both turnout and percentage of votes, legitimizing Putin's legacy and his aggressive policies.