Pakistan Sees India As Existential Threat, Rapidly Expanding Nuclear Arsenal: U.S. DIA Report

Pakistan is actively building up its nuclear weapons to offset India's conventional military dominance and continues to see India as an existential danger, according to the U.S. Defence Intelligence Agency's (DIA) most recent annual threat assessment. With transshipment channels frequently passing through Hong Kong, Singapore, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates, the research cautions about Pakistan's growing reliance on foreign suppliers, especially China, for the technology and materials used in its WMD programs.

According to the DIA, Pakistan's military priorities for the coming year are expected to include a vigorous push towards nuclear modernisation, ongoing counterterrorism operations, increased insurgent attacks by the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and Baloch nationalist groups, and ongoing skirmishes with neighbouring countries.

"Pakistan is committed to its military modernisation efforts, including the development of tactical or battlefield nuclear weapons," the DIA report stated, emphasizing the country's reliance on nuclear deterrence in response to India's larger and more advanced conventional forces.

The report also underlined Pakistan's close strategic ties with China. Pakistani and Chinese forces reportedly hold several joint military exercises annually, including a new air drill completed in November 2024. Economically and militarily, Islamabad remains a significant beneficiary of Beijing's support.

The Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation, citing 2024 data, estimates Pakistan currently possesses around 170 nuclear warheads. This figure far exceeds the DIA's earlier projection from 1999, which estimated Pakistan would have only 60-80 warheads by 2020. If the current trend continues, Pakistan's nuclear stockpile could reach 200 warheads by 2025.

Unlike India, Pakistan has not adopted a 'No First Use' nuclear policy. Instead, Islamabad emphasizes the use of tactical nuclear weapons as a means to deter conventional military threats from New Delhi. The warheads are believed to be stored separately from delivery systems and would only be assembled when necessary, adding to the ambiguity surrounding its operational doctrine.

Notably, the Pakistani government has never publicly disclosed the size or specifics of its nuclear arsenal, making independent assessments particularly difficult and further complicating regional and global security analyses.