Pakistan Reportedly Developing ICBM Capable of Reaching US Amid India Tensions

Pakistan is reportedly in the process of secretly developing an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) capable of reaching the United States, according to U.S. intelligence assessments cited by Foreign Affairs magazine in its July-August 2025 issue. The revelation comes amid growing geopolitical tensions following India's recent cross-border strikes, raising alarms about a potential strategic shift in Islamabad's missile ambitions.

Despite Pakistan's long-standing claim that its nuclear arsenal is designed solely to deter India's conventional military superiority, U.S. intelligence believes the Pakistani military is now aiming beyond regional deterrence. "Although Pakistan claims its nuclear program is strictly focused on deterring India, U.S. intelligence agencies have concluded that the Pakistani military is developing an ICBM that could reach the continental United States," the report stated.

Analysts suggest that Pakistan's pursuit of an ICBM could be an attempt to prevent U.S. military intervention, especially in the event of an India-Pakistan conflict. The goal may be to deter the Pentagon from launching a preventive strike to disable Pakistan's nuclear arsenal or from intervening on India's behalf in a future crisis.

The report warns that if Islamabad acquires an ICBM capable of targeting the U.S., Washington will have "no choice but to treat the country as a nuclear adversary," placing Pakistan in a category previously reserved for states like Russia, China, and North Korea.

Currently, Pakistan's most advanced missile, the Shaheen-III, has a range of 2,700 kilometers, sufficient to strike anywhere in India. An ICBM, however, would have a range of over 5,500 kilometers, enabling it to hit targets well beyond South Asia, including cities on the U.S. mainland.

Pakistan is estimated to possess around 170 nuclear warheads. The country is not a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and continues to modernize its missile technology outside international regulatory frameworks.

U.S. Sanctions and International Fallout

The United States has already taken steps in response to Pakistan's growing missile ambitions. In 2023, Washington imposed sanctions on the National Development Complex-Pakistan's state-run missile development agency-and three affiliated firms. The sanctions freeze assets in the U.S. and bar American companies from doing business with these entities.

According to a U.S. State Department factsheet, the sanctions were imposed due to Islamabad's efforts to procure components for long-range ballistic missile systems. Pakistan dismissed the sanctions as "politically motivated" and "unjust."

Regional Escalation After 'Operation Sindoor'

The development comes on the heels of India's Operation Sindoor in May, a retaliatory strike on terror launchpads in Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir after 26 Indian soldiers were killed in a terror attack in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir on April 22.

The mounting arms race between the two nuclear-armed neighbors, coupled with Islamabad's alleged pursuit of an ICBM, has raised concerns of a broader regional-and possibly global-security crisis.

While there has been no official comment from Pakistan regarding the ICBM development claim, the report has already intensified scrutiny of Islamabad's nuclear and missile strategy. If confirmed, this move would dramatically alter Pakistan's strategic posture, not only in South Asia but on the global stage.