Pakistan 2023 Elections: A Tale of Lower Turnout Amidst Increased Registered Voters

Pakistans 2023 elections saw a significant drop in voter turnout compared to 2018, despite an increase in registered voters. This article delves into the factors contributing to this decline and its potential impact on the countrys political landscape.

Pakistan's recent general elections, held on February 8, 2024, witnessed a voter turnout of 47.6%, marking a decline from the previous election in 2018, which recorded a turnout of 52.1%. This information was revealed on Wednesday, nearly a week after the elections, as the country awaits the formation of a new government amidst a fractured mandate.

FAFEN's Report on Voter Turnout

The Free and Fair Election Network (FAFEN), an independent election observer body, released its report on voter turnout in the general elections. According to the report, approximately 60.6 million voters exercised their right to vote, indicating an increase of nearly 5.8 million voters compared to 2018 when 54.8 million had cast their ballots.

Despite the increase in the absolute number of voters, the turnout percentage dipped from 52.1% in 2018 to 47.6% in 2024. FAFEN attributed this decline to several factors, including harsh winter conditions in certain regions, concerns about violence and terrorism in restive provinces, and uncertainties surrounding the conduct of the elections.

Regional Disaggregation of Voter Turnout

The regional disaggregation of voter turnout for National Assembly constituencies revealed a varied pattern. The lowest turnout was recorded in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, dropping from 44% in 2018 to 39.5% in 2024. Islamabad Capital Territory (ICT) recorded the highest turnout, declining from 58.3% in 2018 to 54.2% in 2024.

Other provinces also experienced a decline in voter turnout. Punjab saw a drop from 56.8% to 51.6%, Sindh from 47.2% to 43.7%, and Balochistan from 45.3% to 42.9%. Punjab witnessed the highest decline of 5.2 percentage points, followed by Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (4.5), ICT (4.1), Sindh (3.5), and Balochistan (2.4).

Gender Analysis of Voter Turnout

The gender analysis of voter turnout indicated a male voter turnout of 51.6% and a female voter turnout of 42.6%. Data from 254 NA constituencies showed that approximately 24.05 million women cast their votes compared to 34.02 million men.

Interestingly, the increase in the number of women voters in 2024 compared to 2018 was greater than the increase in the number of male voters. Around 2.3 million more women turned out to vote in 2024, while 1.09 million more men voted compared to the previous general election.

Decline in Turnout Across Major Cities

The decline in voter turnout was not limited to rural areas but was also observed in major cities, including provincial capitals such as Lahore, Quetta, Peshawar, and Karachi. While the cumulative turnout of all 22 Karachi constituencies saw a declining trend, three districts—Korangi, Karachi West (including the newly carved out district Kemari), and Karachi Central—registered a slight increase in turnout.

Improved Female Voter Turnout

Unlike in the 2018 general elections, none of the National or Provincial Assembly constituencies recorded female turnout below 10% of the total polled votes. This improvement is significant as Section 91 of the Representation of the People Act empowers the Election Commission to declare polling void if the turnout of women voters in a constituency falls below 10% of the total votes.

In GE-2018, two National Assembly and one Provincial Assembly constituency in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa had female turnout below 10%. In GE-2024, the lowest female vote share among total polled votes was 18.8% in NA-13 Battagram in KP, while the highest women's vote share was 49.5% in NA-1 Chitral Upper-cum-Chitral Lower, also in KP.

Pakistan's 2024 general elections witnessed a decline in voter turnout compared to the previous election in 2018. Various factors, including harsh weather conditions, security concerns, and uncertainties about the electoral process, contributed to this decrease. However, the increased participation of women voters and the absence of constituencies with extremely low female turnout are positive developments that indicate progress in promoting gender inclusivity in the electoral process.