Pakistan Election Result Highlights: Who Will Likely Govern Pakistan, And What Are The Next Steps?

The most seats in the lower house of parliament in the elections last Thursday were won by allies of imprisoned former Prime Minister Imran Khan. Given the obstacles faced, such as the inability to hold campaign rallies, the absence of polling agents on election day, and internet restrictions, this outcome came as a shock.

Ninety-three out of 265 National Assembly seats were won by his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf party. However, this is not sufficient to form a government. Similarly, the other two mainstream parties, led by Khan's rivals, also did not secure enough seats to independently form a government.

Pakistan Election Result: What are the next steps?

The Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) of former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP), led by political dynasty scion Bilawal-Bhutto Zardari, secured 75 and 54 seats respectively. Having a majority is crucial as Pakistan's parliament chooses the next prime minister.

Imran Khan is not eligible for public office as he is currently in prison and barred. The PTI has stated that it neither wants nor needs an alliance, asserting that it has sufficient seats. However, this assertion is not accurate. Although the party has garnered public support, as evidenced by the number of seats its candidates have won, it lacks the support of political peers.

According to analyst Azim Chaudhry, other parties harbor "grievances and grudges" against Khan from his tenure in office. They are unwilling to collaborate with him because he has indicated that he does not wish to engage with them. Coalition talks have commenced between the PML-N and PPP since it became apparent that Khan loyalists had gained an advantage.

They claim to have agreements with smaller parties and newly elected parliamentarians, including defectors from Khan's faction, to increase their seat tally to the critical majority number of 169. However, determining who could potentially become prime minister from this diverse group is more challenging.

According to party insiders, Sharif is deemed unsuitable for a coalition due to his temperament. His younger brother, Shehbaz, who led a coalition after Khan was ousted from power, is considered more accommodating. As for Bhutto-Zardari, a former foreign minister, it remains unclear if he will seek the top job in a government that rose to power through a tainted election.

However, he and his party are crucial to any coalition due to their third-largest share of seats. Asif Ali Zardari, his father, is regarded as a kingmaker and unlikely to take any action jeopardizing his son's political future, such as aligning with Khan, as per Chaudhry. There is a possibility of an outside candidate being appointed prime minister to satisfy all parties, but it is unlikely that the two families will relinquish their claim to power.

There is widespread dissatisfaction with the conduct of the election and the vote-counting process. Legal challenges have been initiated to challenge certain results, and protests and allegations of vote rigging are rampant, particularly among Khan's supporters. Police have resorted to using tear gas and have arrested numerous individuals in sporadic demonstrations across Pakistan. Concerns about voting irregularities have been expressed by the international community and rights groups.

Pakistan's president is required to convene the inaugural session of the new National Assembly within 21 days of the election, or by Feb. 29. During this session, lawmakers are sworn in, and they submit nomination papers for various key roles, including the speaker and leader of the house. Following the appointment of these positions, a new prime minister is elected through a parliamentary vote, requiring a simple majority.