Oman, Angola, Nigeria and US Cushion India From LNG Supply Shock
⚠️ SUPPLY DISRUPTION — STRAIT OF HORMUZ CLOSURE
India’s monthly LNG imports fell to 1.67 Mt in March as Gulf routes shut down. Oman, Nigeria, Angola and the US stepped in to prevent a full supply crisis.
Jan – Feb 2025
Normal operations. Qatar averaging 0.95 Mt/mo to India.
🟢Early March 2025
West Asia conflict escalates. Strait of Hormuz effectively closed to LNG vessels.
⛔March 2025
Zero LNG cargoes from Qatar or UAE. India imports slump to 1.67 Mt — well below average.
🚨Late March 2025
Emergency reallocation. Fertiliser plants rationed to 70% of gas needs. Oman & US cargoes ordered.
⚠️April 2025
Alternate cargoes arrive. Imports recover to 1.95 Mt but still 9.3% below year-ago levels.
📈Kharif Season
Fertiliser allocations gradually restored to ensure urea production for sowing season.
✅↓−9.3%
India LNG import decline year-on-year in April 2025, despite partial recovery
≈ 0
LNG cargoes received from Qatar & UAE combined during March 2025
↓ 1.67
India imports, million tonnes, in March — lowest in the disruption period
↑ 3×
Surge in Nigeria & Angola combined monthly LNG supply to India during crisis
▼ Gulf Suppliers Collapse▲ Alternates Surge
🚫 Qatar & UAE — Supply Collapse (Mt/month)
🇶🇦
QATAR
QATAR
🇦🇪
UAE
UAE
⚠ WHY THE COLLAPSE
~60% of India’s LNG imports normally transit the Strait of Hormuz. The West Asia conflict closed this chokepoint in March, making Qatar (India’s largest supplier) and the UAE unreachable by LNG tanker.
📈 Alternate Suppliers — Emergency Surge (Mt/month)
🇴🇲
OMAN
+233%
🇺🇸
USA
+29%
🇳🇬
NIGERIA
∼3×
🇦🇴
ANGOLA
∼3×
✔ OMAN’S KEY ADVANTAGE
Despite being in West Asia, Oman’s LNG export terminal on the Arabian Sea bypasses the Strait of Hormuz entirely, allowing uninterrupted shipments to India throughout the crisis.
📊 India LNG Import Share — Before vs. During Crisis
Jan–Feb 2025
Mar–Apr 2025 ⛔
🏭 Domestic Sector Impact & Response
🌾 FERTILISER SECTOR — RATIONED
Fertiliser plants initially received only 70% of average gas requirements. Risk to urea production ahead of kharif sowing season.
ACTUAL
TARGET
✅ RECOVERY ACTION — APRIL
As Oman, Nigeria and Angola cargoes arrived, allocations were gradually restored to fertiliser plants. Urea production for kharif season secured.
⚠️ ANALYST WARNING — ONGOING RISK
Global LNG system has very little spare capacity. If Hormuz disruption continues, market could tighten significantly within months, risking higher prices and deeper shortages.
📉 India Total LNG Imports — Monthly Volume (Illustrative, Million Tonnes)
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Normal
Crisis Month (March)
April recovery: 1.95 Mt (−9.3% YoY, but +16.8% vs March)
FORWARD RISK: Analysts warn the global LNG market is operating with minimal spare capacity. Continued Strait of Hormuz disruption could trigger a significant market tightening within months — raising the prospect of sharp price increases and supply shortages that India’s alternate-sourcing strategy may not be able to fully offset at scale. India meets nearly half its gas demand through LNG imports, making sustained diversification a strategic necessity.
📖 ExplainerWhat is LNG & Why Does It Matter?
📦 India’s LNG Infrastructure
India has six operational LNG regasification terminals on its coast — at Dahej, Hazira, Dabhol, Kochi, Ennore and Mundra — with a combined capacity of around 47.5 million tonnes per annum (MTPA). These convert imported liquid LNG back into gas for the domestic pipeline grid.
🌾 Why Urea Supply Is Non-Negotiable
India is the world’s second-largest urea consumer and subsidises it heavily for farmers. Any shortfall in urea supply during the kharif (summer crop) or rabi (winter crop) sowing seasons directly threatens food security for hundreds of millions. This is why the government prioritised fertiliser plants — even at 70% capacity — as the first sector to receive restored gas allocations.
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