KP Sharma Oli Set To Return As Nepal PM After Prachanda Steps Down

Nepal's Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dah 'Prachanda lost his latest vote of confidence in Parliament on Friday. This anticipated outcome led to his resignation, paving the way for KP Sharma Oli to return as the PM. Prachanda called for a fifth vote of confidence after the Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist Lenin (CPN-U) withdrew its support and formed a coalition with the Nepali Congress.

All signs pointed to Prachanda losing Friday's vote as he secured only 63 votes in the 275-member House of Representatives, far short of the 138 needed. There were 194 votes against his motion of confidence. The CPN-Maoist Centre, Prachanda's party, has just 32 members in Parliament. In contrast, the Nepali Congress holds 89 seats and CPN-UML has 78 seats, giving their alliance a clear majority.

Oli's Return to Power Assured

The midnight deal to form a new 'national consensus government' aimed at ousting Prachanda from power. Oli and Nepali Congress leader Sher Bahadur Deuba met to discuss a potential political alliance. Following this meeting, Oli's CPN-UML ended its association with Prachanda's government just four months after initially supporting it.

Under their agreement, Oli will lead the new government for a year and a half. Deuba will then take over as prime minister until the next election. During Oli's tenure, CPN-UML will control key ministries including Finance and Prime Minister's Office, while Nepali Congress will oversee ten ministries including Home Ministry.

Prachanda's Fall from Power

Prachanda, known as "the fierce one," led a violent Maoist insurgency from 1996 to 2006 that claimed over 17,000 lives. The Maoists abandoned their armed revolt in 2006, joining a UN-assisted peace process and entering mainstream politics. He first became Prime Minister in 2008 but resigned a year later due to differences with the President and again in 2016.

The 69-year-old leader had been heading an unstable coalition since December 2022 following an inconclusive election where his party finished third. Despite this, he managed to form an alliance and became PM. He had to seek trust votes multiple times due to internal disagreements within his coalition partners.

Prachanda secured an overwhelming 99% vote in his first confidence vote in early 2023, becoming the first Nepali leader to achieve such support. Despite being the third largest party in Parliament, he enjoyed backing from both Nepali Congress and CPN-UML initially. However, within three months of taking office, he shifted alliances from CPN-UML to Nepali Congress.

Political Instability in Nepal

Nepal has experienced significant political instability with thirteen governments in the last sixteen years. This highlights the fragile nature of its political system. Major parties like Nepali Congress, CPN-UML and Janata Samajbadi Party issued whips instructing lawmakers to oppose Prachanda’s confidence motion tabled on Friday.

Last week, CPN-UML demanded Prachanda’s immediate resignation after he announced plans for another confidence vote following withdrawal of support by some allies. Despite eight Cabinet ministers from CPN-UML resigning, Prachanda chose not to step down but instead face Parliament’s vote.

Apart from Congress and CPN-UML, other parties such as Rastriya Prajatantra Party (14), Janamat Party (6), Janata Samajbadi Party (12), Loktantrik Samajbadi Party (4) and Nagarik Unmukti Party (3) also decided to vote against Prachanda’s motion. This further solidified his expected defeat.

Prachanda’s support has notably declined across successive confidence votes. His second vote took place on March 20 after aligning with Nepali Congress post-CPN-UML split. He faced his third-floor test on March 13, ending his nearly fifteen-month partnership with Nepali Congress before taking his fourth confidence vote in May following Janata Samajbadi Party’s withdrawal of support.