Israel Faces Critical Choices for Retaliation Against Iran Following Missile Attack

Israel is preparing to respond to Iran's recent missile attack, a move that carries significant risks and potential global consequences. The options range from symbolic military strikes to more severe actions targeting Iran's oil industry or nuclear facilities. The timing and intensity of Israel's response were set to be discussed at a Pentagon meeting, which was unexpectedly postponed. President Joe Biden has advised against targeting Iran's nuclear programme or oil industry.

Former Israeli leaders and experts have differing views on the best course of action. There is agreement that retaliation is necessary, but opinions vary on how it should be executed. "The question is not whether Israel will retaliate or respond," former Prime Minister Ehud Olmert told AP. "The question is which way."

Israel-Iran Tensions

Israel and Iran have been engaged in a long-standing shadow conflict, primarily through Israel's confrontations with Iranian-backed groups. Israel has been suspected of targeting Iranian nuclear scientists and facilities but rarely acknowledges involvement. Direct confrontations have been infrequent until recent events escalated tensions.

The situation intensified after Hamas attacked Israel from Gaza on 7 October 2023, followed by Hezbollah launching rockets the next day. Both groups are supported by Iran. In April, Iran launched over 300 drones and missiles at Israel, accusing it of killing two generals in Syria. Most missiles malfunctioned or were intercepted, leading to a limited Israeli response.

Potential Israeli Actions

Israel has various targets in mind, including Iranian government sites, military bases, oil installations, and nuclear facilities. Striking Iran poses logistical challenges due to the distance and the need for midair refuelling over potentially hostile territories. Any attack would also involve confronting Iran's air-defence systems.

"Remember that Iran is 1,500, 1,600 kilometers about 1,000 miles away from Israel, and you have countries in between — Jordan, Iraq, Saudi Arabia. Some are friends. Some are foes," said Yoel Guzansky from the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv.

Debate Among Former Leaders

Former Prime Minister Ehud Olmert suggests targeting multiple military sites across Iran to demonstrate Israel's capabilities without escalating tensions unnecessarily. He believes attacking the oil sector or nuclear facilities could provoke retaliation and might not succeed.

Yair Lapid, another former prime minister, advocates for striking Iran's oil infrastructure as it would significantly impact the regime. He emphasises that any attack on nuclear facilities should involve international cooperation with the US.

Strategic Considerations

Naftali Bennett, a former prime minister, argues for a more aggressive approach by targeting Iran's nuclear project directly. He believes this is an opportunity to weaken Iran's leadership and economy decisively.

Menahem Merhavy from Hebrew University highlights the global implications of any Israeli attack on Iran. Such actions could disrupt global oil markets and provoke Iranian retaliation against American forces or Gulf allies.

Olmert advises caution and strategic thinking: "What do we want to achieve and how far do we want to go and how arrogant do we want to be?" His advice: "Try to be smart."