Is there any possibility of new variants as Covid-19 cases in other countries climb

Beijing, Dec 24: Just when we thought the worst of the COVID-19 pandemic was over, a spurt in cases in China and other countires has triggered worry across the globe about a potential new variant emerging from the current outbreak.

China is currently seeing a wave of infections following the relaxation of most pandemic measures last month. Cases of covid have increased in big cities like Beijing and Shanghai, where patients are flooding to hospitals and unprepared citizens are scurrying for treatments.

It is also being reported that the country has stopped testing people. Till early this month people needed to test almost every day to visit public places with negative test results. With no testing now, concerns have been raised about whether it is possible to track any changes as the country battles a surge in cases at the same time as testing requirements have been scaled back.

Omicron strains driving surge in China

According to health officials, Chinese cities are currently hit by highly transmissible Omicron strains, mainly BA.5.2 and BF.7, which are spreading like wildfire.

Beijing is hit by the BF.7 variant of the Omicron virus, stated to be the fastest spreading coronavirus, causing havoc in the capital whose hospitals are overcrowded. Reports also highlight the increasing rush at crematoriums in Beijing and other cities. Beijing has acknowledged seven deaths in the last few days.

Many Chinese pharmaceutical companies are operating at full capacity to meet rocketing demand for cold and fever medicines, and thanks to various measures taken by the government and firms, the shortages are easing, according to official media reports.

Taking account of the global surge, India has also initiated precautionary measures to keep its citizens safe from the virus. So far, four cases of Omicron sub-variant BF.7 have been detected in India.

Possibility of any new variants

It must be noted that experts had earlier warned that a tripledemic is heading our way this winter. This trio of viral threats includes respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), influenza (flu) and COVID. Well, it seems the prediction turning out to very much true!

Dean Blumberg, chief of pediatric infectious diseases at UC Davis Children's Hospital in US said,''COVID cases are expected to rise during the winter. This will be occurring at the same time we expect to see influenza rates increase while we are already seeing an early start to RSV season. With all three viruses on the rise, we are worried about an increase in the rates of viral infection that may lead to an increase in hospitalizations.''

Meanwhile, Chinese health experts have warned that a new wave of coronavirus infections that have hit China may result in new variants, prompting authorities to set up a nationwide network of hospitals to monitor mutations of the deadly virus.

Wang Guangfa, a respiratory expert from Peking University First Hospital, warned that Beijing may experience a spike in severe COVID-19 cases over the next fortnight.

Engulfed by the latest wave, medical resources in the capital city are facing additional stress. The city is set to soon face peak caseload, Wang told state-run Global Times.

Wang said ensuring there is no breakdown in medical resources is a key factor in raising success rates in treating critical Covid-19 cases. "We must act quickly and prepare fever clinics, emergency and severe treatment resources," he said, adding that the primary action for hospitals is to expand ICU beds.

Also, public health experts, including top respiratory disease expert Zhong Nanshan, have warned that waves of Covid-19 infections in China over a short period of time might give rise to new variants of the virus.

Xu Wenbo, director of the China CDC's National Institute for Viral Disease Control and Prevention, said more than 130 Omicron sub-lineages had been detected in China in the past three months, including several from the BQ.1 and XBB strains which have been circulating in the US, Britain and Singapore, among other countries, since October.

These are known to be highly evasive from immunity built from past infections or vaccination but do not increase disease severity. The World Health Organisation (WHO) has said the potential impact of the BQ.1 and XXB sub-lineages "is strongly influenced by the regional immune landscape".

While BA5.2 and BF.7 remain dominant in China, "BQ.1 and its sub-lineage have been found in 49 cases in nine provinces, while XBB sub-lineages have been found in 11 cases in three provinces", Xu said. There had been no increase in the rate of severe cases and no significant increase in the number of deaths as a result of these sub-lineages, he said.

But the possibility is low that a highly transmissible variant with a high disease severity will emerge, as none of the 700 Omicron sub-lineages has caused a significant increase in severe cases and death rates, he said. "We will monitor changes in disease severity, whether the genome mutates," Xu said.

(with PTI inputs)