Is China Expanding Its Nuclear Arsenal Faster Than The US And Russia? Here's What You Need To Know

The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) has reported that China is significantly accelerating the expansion of its nuclear forces, outpacing all other nations in this regard.

As of January 2024, China has added 90 warheads to its nuclear stockpile, reaching a total of 500 warheads, as reported by South China Morning Post (SCMP).

China Expanding Its Nuclear Arsenal- Report

SIPRI projections indicate that China's current arsenal of approximately 238 intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) could potentially surpass the United States' 800 or even Russia's 1,244 ICBMs within the next decade.

Comparison with US and Russian Arsenals

Despite these expansions, SIPRI notes that China's overall nuclear arsenal remains considerably smaller compared to the United States and Russia. The US currently possesses 5,044 warheads, while Russia maintains 5,580 warheads, as reported by SCMP. This stark contrast highlights China's ongoing efforts to enhance its nuclear capabilities amidst global strategic dynamics.

Global Nuclear Landscape

The SIPRI report provides a comprehensive overview of the global nuclear landscape, indicating a total of 12,121 nuclear warheads worldwide as of January 2024. The vast majority of these warheads, approximately 90%, are held by Russia and the US. Of these, about 9,585 warheads are operational and ready for deployment, with the remainder consisting of retired Cold War-era warheads awaiting dismantlement, as per Chinese media outlet.

Strategic Developments and Infrastructure

China's strategic developments include the construction of approximately 350 new silos for land-based ballistic missiles. These infrastructure investments suggest a significant expansion in China's capacity to deploy nuclear warheads. If each silo is equipped with single-warhead missiles, China could potentially increase its ICBM warhead count to around 650 within the next decade, reported local media. Moreover, if equipped with multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicles (MIRVs), the number of ICBM warheads could exceed 1,200.

Motivations and Policy

Hans Kristensen, the associate senior fellow at SIPRI's Weapons of Mass Destruction Programme, points out that China's nuclear expansion is driven by concerns over US first-strike capabilities and efforts to counter US missile defences. China maintains a "no first use" policy and asserts that its nuclear arsenal is strictly tailored to its national security needs.

Global Security Implications

SIPRI raises concerns about the broader implications of nuclear proliferation and modernization efforts worldwide. The institute notes that setbacks in nuclear arms control and disarmament diplomacy were observed in 2023 due to geopolitical tensions and diplomatic challenges, as per media report. This trend, if continued, could exacerbate global security risks and heighten nuclear tensions in the coming years.

In summary, SIPRI's report underscores China's rapid expansion in nuclear capabilities within the global context of nuclear arms control and disarmament efforts. The institute's analysis emphasizes the need for continued international dialogue and cooperation to mitigate the risks associated with nuclear proliferation and ensure global stability.