Study Reveals Glacier Mass Loss Intensifies at 2 Degrees Celsius Compared to 1.5 Degrees Celsius

The latest study highlights that if global temperatures are limited to a 1.5 degrees Celsius rise, more than twice the glacier mass will remain compared to a 2.7 degrees Celsius increase. This research, published in 'Science', indicates glaciers are more vulnerable to climate change than previously thought. At 2.7 degrees Celsius, only 24% of current glacier mass would survive, whereas 54% could be preserved at 1.5 degrees Celsius.

Impact on Global Glacier Mass

The study reveals that the large glaciers in Antarctica and Greenland skew global figures. Regions crucial to human populations are even more sensitive, with some losing almost all ice at just 2 degrees Celsius. The Hindu Kush Himalaya, vital for river basins supporting two billion people in countries like India and Nepal, would retain only 25% of its 2020 ice levels at this temperature.

The International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) underscores the urgency of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. This goal is crucial for preserving glacier ice across all regions, including Scandinavia, where 20-30% of ice could remain in the most sensitive areas. In the Himalayas and Caucasus, 40-45% of ice might still exist under this scenario.

Global Efforts and Agreements

Under the Paris Agreement of 2015, over 180 nations committed to reducing emissions to keep temperature rise below 2 degrees Celsius and strive for a limit of 1.5 degrees Celsius by the year 2100. The study stresses the importance of rapid de-carbonisation to meet these targets.

The research also examines glaciers in the European Alps, Western US Rockies, Canada, and Iceland. At a sustained warming of 2 degrees Celsius, only 10-15% of their ice from 2020 would remain. Scandinavia would be severely affected, with no glacier ice left at this temperature level.

Scientific Methodology and Findings

A team of 21 scientists from ten countries employed eight glacier models to assess potential ice loss from over 200,000 glaciers worldwide under various global temperature scenarios. The findings indicate that glaciers will continue losing mass rapidly over decades before slowing down over centuries, even without further warming.

Dr Harry Zekollari from Vrije Universiteit Brussel emphasised that "every fraction of a degree matters," noting that today's decisions will impact glacier preservation for centuries. Dr Lilian Schuster from the University of Innsbruck warned that the situation is worse than what is visible today.

Future Temperature Projections

A recent five-year forecast suggests an 80% likelihood of breaking another annual temperature record within five years. The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) and UK Meteorological Office predict it's highly probable that global temperatures will again surpass international thresholds set a decade ago.

Nepal's Prime Minister K P Sharma Oli highlighted the significance of mountains during the Sagarmatha Dialogues, stating: "Mountains may seem far away. But their breath keeps half the world alive." He stressed that these natural water towers are in danger across regions like the Arctic, Andes, Alps, and Himalayas.

As world leaders gather for the first UN conference on glaciers in Dushanbe, Tajikistan, concerns about glacier and snowpack loss grow. Glaciers serve as vital water sources and are highly sensitive to climate changes. Understanding mass balance—the difference between winter snow accumulation and summer snow and ice loss—is essential for gauging water availability from glaciers.

With inputs from PTI