Explained | Understanding The Deepening Of Iran-Russia Military Cooperation Amidst Missile Deal

A large number of powerful surface-to-surface ballistic missiles have been provided to Russia by Iran, according to information obtained from six sources by Reuters, further deepening military cooperation between the two countries, both of which are sanctioned by the United States.

Iran has reportedly provided around 400 missiles, including many from the Fateh-110 family of short-range ballistic weapons like the Zolfaghar, as indicated by three Iranian sources. Experts suggest that these road-mobile missiles possess the capability to strike targets within a range of 300 to 700 km (186 to 435 miles).

Iran agrees on surface-to-surface ballistic missiles for Russia - Report

Comment from Iran's defence ministry and the Revolutionary Guards, the elite force overseeing Iran's ballistic missile program, was not obtained. Similarly, Russia's defence ministry did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

The initiation of shipments commenced in early January following the finalization of a deal in meetings held late last year between military and security officials from Iran and Russia, according to one of the Iranian sources.

An Iranian military official, along with other sources, who preferred not to be identified due to the sensitivity of the information, stated that there have been at least four shipments of missiles, with more expected in the coming weeks. However, further details were not provided, as reported by Reuters.

According to a second Iranian official, some of the missiles were transported to Russia by ship via the Caspian Sea, while others were transported by plane. The second Iranian official emphasized that there would be more shipments, asserting, "There is no reason to hide it. We are allowed to export weapons to any country that we wish to."

While UN Security Council restrictions on Iran's export of certain missiles, drones, and other technologies expired in October, the United States and European Union have maintained sanctions on Iran's ballistic missile program, citing concerns over exports of weapons to its proxies in the Middle East and Russia.

Confirmation of Russia's receipt of a large number of missiles from Iran recently was provided by a fourth source, who did not offer further details. White House national security spokesperson John Kirby expressed concerns in early January about Russia's proximity to acquiring short-range ballistic weapons from Iran, in addition to missiles already sourced from North Korea.

A U.S. official informed that evidence of advancing talks had been observed, but there was no indication yet of deliveries taking place. The Pentagon did not respond immediately to requests for comment on the missile deliveries, reported Reuters. In contrast, Ukraine's top prosecutor reported on Friday that the ballistic missiles supplied by North Korea to Russia had proven unreliable on the battlefield, with only two out of 24 hitting their targets.

Both Moscow and Pyongyang have denied allegations that North Korea provided Russia with munitions used in Ukraine. Expert Jeffrey Lewis from the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey described the Fateh-110 family of missiles and the Zolfaghar as precision weapons, stating that 400 munitions could inflict considerable harm if utilized in Ukraine. He noted, however, that Russian bombardments were already "pretty brutal."

Iran's Deepening Ties with Russia

Iran's hardline clerical rulers have been observed to be actively pursuing deeper ties with Russia and China, to resist U.S. sanctions and mitigate political isolation. This trend has been noted in the context of the following developments:

• Defence cooperation between Iran and Russia has seen intensification since the deployment of tens of thousands of Russian troops into Ukraine in February 2022.
• A meeting between Russia's Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and the head of Iran's Revolutionary Guards Aerospace Force, Amirali Hajizadeh, reportedly took place in Tehran in September. During this meeting, Iran's drones, missiles, and air defence systems were showcased to the Russian officials, as reported by Iranian state media.
• Additionally, Russia's foreign ministry has indicated its anticipation for President Vladimir Putin and his Iranian counterpart Ebrahim Raisi to sign a broad new cooperation treaty soon, following talks held in Moscow in December.

The military official remarked that this partnership with Russia has served to demonstrate Iran's defence capabilities to the world, clarifying that it does not imply taking sides with Russia in the Ukraine conflict. During ongoing conflicts such as the war between Israel and the Palestinian Islamist group Hamas, Iran's clerical rulers face significant stakes, reported Reuters.

These include both external pressures and internal challenges, such as growing dissent over economic hardships and social restrictions. Despite efforts by Tehran to avoid confrontation with Israel, its Axis of Resistance allies, including Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen, have been reported to carry out attacks on Israeli and U.S. targets.

A Western diplomat, briefed on the matter, confirmed the recent delivery of Iranian ballistic missiles to Russia, albeit without providing further details. Concerns among Western nations have been raised regarding the potential strengthening of Russia's position in potential conflicts with the United States and Israel, through reciprocal transfers of weapons to Iran.

In November, Iran announced the finalization of arrangements for Russia to provide it with Su-35 fighter jets, Mi-28 attack helicopters, and Yak-130 pilot training aircraft. Analyst Gregory Brew from Eurasia Group, a political risk consultancy, characterized the Iran-Russia relationship as one of convenience, describing it as transactional.

He noted that in exchange for drones, Iran expects increased security cooperation and access to advanced weaponry, particularly modern aircraft. Further, Against the backdrop of expanding ties between Tehran and Moscow, an announcement was made on Saturday regarding a long-term agreement for the purchase of grains from Russia, on February 10.

According to Iranian government media, the agreement was inked during the visit of Iran's deputy minister of agriculture to Moscow. Under the terms of the agreement, leading Russian banks Sberbank and VTB will play pivotal roles by facilitating necessary credit lines.

This development follows the announcement of a credit line worth 6.5 billion rubles (equivalent to over 71 million USD) in December for importing essential goods from Russia to Iran.

The deepening political, trade, and military ties between Russia and Iran have been closely watched, particularly by the United States, which views the relationship with growing concern. The alliance between Tehran and Moscow has strengthened, especially as Iran has supplied Russia with drones and missiles amid the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, as per IRNA agency report.

Analysts suggest that the Gaza war has provided Russia with a strategic advantage by diverting global attention away from its involvement in Ukraine while enabling alignment with nations expressing solidarity with the Palestinian cause.

In a recent announcement, an acceleration in efforts to finalize a "major new interstate agreement" with Iran was highlighted by the Russian foreign ministry. The scope of the agreement remains undisclosed, but it underscores the deepening ties across political, trade, and military domains, according to IRNA Agency report.

Despite delays in renewing a two-decade-old strategic agreement with Iran, Russia's reliance on Iranian weapons, including kamikaze drones, amid its war in Ukraine, underscores the importance of the alliance for Moscow. Much like North Korea, Iran remains a declared adversary of the United States and holds the potential to furnish Moscow with military hardware crucial for its operations in Ukraine.

Impact of U.S. Aid Delay on Ukraine's Defenses

According to a military source in Ukraine, Kyiv has not detected any utilization of Iranian ballistic missiles by Russian forces in the conflict. After the latest update on Russian military equipment, national television was informed by a spokesperson for Ukraine's Air Force that there was no official information on Russia acquiring such missiles.

It was emphasized that ballistic missiles would pose a serious threat to Ukraine. Former Ukrainian defence minister Andriy Zagorodnyuk pointed out that Russia aimed to bolster its missile arsenal, especially as delays in approving a major package of U.S. military aid in Congress had left Ukraine deficient in ammunition and other materials.

Zagorodnyuk, who chairs the Kyiv-based Centre for Defence Strategies, underscored the importance of accumulating rockets to overcome Ukrainian air defence shortages. Repeated appeals have been made by Kyiv to Tehran to cease supplying Shahed drones to Russia, which have become a prominent component of Moscow's long-range assaults on Ukrainian cities and infrastructure, alongside an array of missiles.

In December, Ukraine's air force reported that Russia had deployed 3,700 Shahed drones during the war, capable of flying hundreds of kilometres and exploding on impact. They are dubbed "mopeds" by Ukrainians due to the distinct sound of their engines, with air defences downing dozens of them each week.

Initially, Iran denied supplying drones to Russia but later admitted to providing a small number before Moscow initiated the conflict in Ukraine in 2022. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Nasser Kanaani dismissed accusations of Iran's involvement in providing weapons to either side in the Ukraine war, attributing such claims to political motives, as reported by Reuters.

Kanaani clarified that Iran had not provided any drones for participation in the conflict. Rob Lee, a senior fellow at the Philadelphia-based think tank Foreign Policy Research Institute, highlighted that a supply of Fateh-100 and Zolfaghar missiles from Iran would provide Russia with an even greater advantage on the battlefield.

Lee emphasized their potential for striking military targets at operational depths, noting the difficulty Ukrainian air defences would face in intercepting ballistic missiles.