EXPLAINED | Can Severe Solar Storms Disrupt Communication And Lead To Blackouts?

The most powerful solar storm in over two decades is currently being experienced by Earth, with a series of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) bombarding the planet. These CMEs, massive expulsions of plasma and magnetic fields from the Sun, were initiated on Friday and have escalated into an "extreme" geomagnetic storm, reminiscent of the infamous "Halloween Storms" of October 2003.

The first of several coronal mass ejections (CMEs) - expulsions of plasma and magnetic fields from the Sun - was observed just after 1600 GMT, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)'s Space Weather Prediction Center.

However, alongside the celestial spectacle, concerns are raised over potential disruptions to communication networks and power grids, as reported by First Post. The fluctuating magnetic fields associated with geomagnetic storms can induce currents in long wires, including power lines, posing a risk of blackouts. Additionally, satellites and high-frequency radio communications could face potential disruptions.

Impact of Solar Activity on Earth's Systems

The discussion of solar activity by NOAA pertains to the release of energy from the Sun, which travels through space and eventually reaches Earth. Upon encountering the magnetic sphere enveloping our planet, this radiation induces fluctuations in the ionosphere, a layer situated in the upper atmosphere.

These alterations can directly affect satellites and spacecraft in orbit, potentially causing changes in their orientation or even damaging their electronic components. Furthermore, modifications to the ionosphere have the capacity to obstruct or degrade radio transmissions attempting to traverse the atmosphere to communicate with satellites.

Additionally, they can impede radio transmissions from effectively bouncing off the ionosphere, a technique often utilized by radio operators to amplify the range of their signals.

Given that GPS satellites rely on signals penetrating the ionosphere, the anticipated geomagnetic disturbance could extensively jeopardize this critical technology used by aircraft, maritime vessels, as well as in industries such as agriculture, oil, and gas.

Moreover, it could disrupt shortwave radio transmissions essential for communication among ships, aircraft, emergency management entities, the military, and amateur radio operators, all of whom depend on the high-frequency radio airwaves susceptible to scattering by the impending storm, as outlined by NOAA.

NOAA's Warning and Response

NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center has issued a warning about the potential impact of geomagnetic storms on infrastructure in near-Earth orbit and on Earth's surface. This includes disruptions to communications, the electric power grid, navigation, radio, and satellite operations. SWPC has notified the operators of these systems so they can take protective action.

Will your phones be affected?

Regarding cellphones, consumer wireless networks operate on different radio frequencies compared to high-frequency bands, suggesting that the solar storm will have "minimal direct impact to public safety line-of-sight radio and commercial cellular services ... and no first-order impact to consumer electronic devices."

Moreover, the GPS functionality on mobile devices typically utilizes a combination of pure GPS and cellular tower-based location tracking. Therefore, even in the event of disruptions to GPS signals, users may still retain a rough location fix, as reported by CNN.

Research summarized findings from a 2010 study conducted by NOAA and the Federal Emergency Management Agency, indicating that extreme space weather events should result in "minimal direct impact on public safety line-of-sight radio and commercial cellular services," with no primary impact on consumer electronic devices, provided the underlying electrical infrastructure supporting wireless networks remains intact.

A 2021 presentation by the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency echoed similar sentiments, suggesting that line-of-sight radio transmissions are generally resilient to space weather, except in specific circumstances. However, the presentation highlighted potential risks for copper cables and telephone lines on land, as reported by First Post.

In a separate incident in February, NOAA reported two significant solar flares coinciding with "widely reported cellular network outages." Despite this, the agency deemed it "highly unlikely" that the flares directly caused the blackouts.

"We've not seen any evidence in the past that a space weather storm could impact that now," Brent Gordon, chief of the Space Weather Services branch for SWPC, told reporters on a conference call. "If power is not available for those, then yes, certainly, the secondary impacts from that would be great."

Has this happened before?

The current solar storm evokes memories of the Carrington Event of 1859, which remains the most intense solar storm in recorded history. While the storm poses risks to high-voltage transmission lines and satellites, NASA has assured that the International Space Station (ISS) and its crew are not in serious danger. However, increased radiation levels could threaten some of NASA's science satellites, prompting precautionary measures.

In addition to affecting communication infrastructure, the solar storm's effects extend to wildlife and navigation systems. Pigeon handlers have noted a reduction in birds returning home during geomagnetic storms, highlighting the impact on species with internal biological compasses.

Can there be a blackout?

The power grid faces potential risks due to severe space weather, as highlighted by NOAA's recent alert mentioning "possible widespread voltage control problems" and the potential tripping out of key assets. Historical incidents, such as the 1989 blackout in Quebec and the October power outages in Sweden and South Africa, underscore the vulnerability of electrical infrastructure to geomagnetic storms, as reported by CNN.

The Carrington Event of 1859, the largest geomagnetic storm on record, resulted in telegraph stations sparking and catching fire. A blackout could have cascading effects on communications and technology, including cellphone service, as cellular towers and data centers may lose power.

However, wireless carriers often have backup power generators and mobile cellular towers ready for deployment during emergencies, prioritizing redundancy and resilience in critical infrastructure. Consumers may need to focus on keeping their devices charged rather than worrying about connectivity, as per media reports.