Ceasefire in Gaza: What to Expect Next Amid Hostage Releases and Challenges

The initial week of the latest ceasefire between Israel and Hamas has concluded. During this period, Hamas began releasing hostages, while Israel freed nearly 300 Palestinian prisoners. However, a significant issue arose when Israel announced that a female civilian hostage, Arbel Yehoud, was not released as expected. This delay has also postponed the planned return of many displaced Palestinians to northern Gaza.

In the second phase of the ceasefire, all remaining hostages are expected to be released in exchange for a complete Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and a "sustainable calm." Discussions about this phase are scheduled to start on Day 16, February 3. However, many details still need to be resolved. Israel has stated it will not agree to a full withdrawal until Hamas's military and political capabilities are dismantled.

Ceasefire Developments

This ceasefire is the second in 15 months during the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas, which governs Gaza. The previous ceasefire lasted a week over a year ago. The current truce is longer and holds potential for ending the conflict, though achieving this is more complex than current developments suggest. Qatar, Egypt, and the United States are mediating the process.

On Saturday, four more hostages and 200 Palestinian prisoners were released. Earlier in the week, three Israeli hostages held in Gaza were freed, followed by the release of 90 Palestinian prisoners by Israel. Meanwhile, Israeli forces have retreated to buffer zones within Gaza, halting fighting. Hundreds of trucks carrying humanitarian aid have entered the area, and many displaced Palestinians have begun returning to their homes.

Future Expectations

Saturday marked Day 7 of the ceasefire. Starting next Saturday on Day 14, three hostages should be released every seven days in exchange for more Palestinian prisoners. By the end of 42 days, all living women, children, and older people held by militants should be freed. Eventually, bodies of hostages might also be included in releases.

Israel was supposed to allow Palestinians to return to northern Gaza by Sunday. However, due to Yehoud's non-release, Palestinians cannot cross north through the Netzarim corridor that divides the territory east to west. The agreement called for civilian women's release on Saturday; instead, soldiers were freed. The reason for Yehoud's non-release remains unclear.

A senior Hamas official indicated that Yehoud would be released next week after informing mediators. An Egyptian official involved in negotiations described it as a "minor issue" being resolved by mediators. Both officials spoke anonymously as they were not authorised to discuss publicly.

Challenges Ahead

Hundreds of anxious Palestinians have already gathered near northern Gaza's crossing points amid widespread destruction across much of the territory. On Saturday near Netzarim corridor one Palestinian was shot dead according to Al-Aqsa Martyrs Hospital in Deir al-Balah; Israel's military did not comment immediately.

If all parties reach Phase 3 successfully it may prove less contentious than earlier stages: remaining hostage bodies would be returned in exchange for implementing a three-to-five-year reconstruction plan for Gaza though funding sources remain uncertain.

Hamas has expressed willingness to step aside from governing but may still seek involvement in any future government—a prospect rejected by Israel—and is unlikely relinquish its weapons easily.