BNP’s Big Win in Dhaka Puts India–Bangladesh Ties in Focus

The alliance led by the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) is heading for a sweeping victory in the February 12 parliamentary elections, a development that could reshape India-Bangladesh relations.

Local television projections show the BNP-led bloc ahead in at least 212 of the 299 constituencies that voted. Unofficial tallies suggest the coalition may secure close to two-thirds of the seats in Parliament. The Jamaat-e-Islami alliance is reported to have won 70 constituencies.

If these trends are confirmed by the Election Commission, BNP chairman Tarique Rahman is set to become Bangladesh's next Prime Minister.

India Responds

Prime Minister Narendra Modi sent "warm congratulations" to Tarique Rahman, stating that the victory reflected "the trust of the people of Bangladesh in your leadership."

Modi added that India would continue to support a democratic, progressive and inclusive Bangladesh and expressed his intention to strengthen bilateral ties.

The quick message from New Delhi signals that India is keen to maintain continuity in relations after months of diplomatic unease.

Past Strains and Shifts

The BNP's history with India has been mixed. During the tenure of former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia, ties were functional but often marked by limited strategic trust, particularly on security cooperation.

That contrasted with the years under Sheikh Hasina's Awami League government, when cooperation expanded in trade, transit, energy and counter-terrorism.

Hasina's government was removed during the August 5, 2024 uprising. In the months that followed, India-Bangladesh relations saw visible strain. Reports of violence against minorities, including the killing of 25-year-old Dipu Chandra Das, triggered protests in several Indian cities.

New Delhi expressed concern over law and order and the political direction of the interim administration led by Muhammad Yunus.

Economic Interdependence

Despite political shifts, economic ties remain strong. Between April 2023 and March 2024, India exported goods worth $11.1 billion to Bangladesh. Exports included textiles, electricity, agricultural products, iron, steel and plastics.

Analysts say this level of economic interdependence makes sustained diplomatic distance difficult.

Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar's visit to attend Khaleda Zia's funeral earlier this year, carrying a letter from Modi referring to a "new beginning," was seen as an opening gesture.

Jamaat Factor

The Jamaat-e-Islami alliance's reported 70 seats add complexity to the political picture.

Jamaat, once banned after independence, re-entered mainstream politics and later became a key BNP ally in the 2001 government. Many of its senior leaders were prosecuted under Sheikh Hasina's administration.

Its renewed parliamentary presence will be closely watched in India, particularly on matters related to security and minority rights.

What Lies Ahead

If the BNP formally secures a majority, Bangladesh will witness a significant political transition less than two years after the 2024 uprising.

India's approach is likely to remain pragmatic. Dhaka, for its part, is expected to balance ties with India while maintaining engagement with China and other regional players.

The final results will confirm the scale of the BNP's mandate. For now, early projections point to a decisive shift in Bangladesh's political landscape - and a new phase in India-Bangladesh relations.