Uncertainty and Concerns Cloud Biden-Trump Rematch With Election Day Approaching

North Carolina voter Will Rikard, a 49-year-old father of two, expressed concern about Joe Biden's political standing in the upcoming rematch with former Republican President Donald Trump. "There's not enough energy," Rikard said of Biden's coalition. "I think people are gonna need to wake up and get going."

With six months left before Election Day, Biden and Trump are engaged in the first contest in 112 years featuring a current and former president competing for the White House. The race is deeply entrenched and highly in flux, as many voters are only just beginning to embrace the reality of the 2024 campaign.

Wars, trials, Robert Kennedy Jr.'s independent candidacy, and deep divisions across America have injected extraordinary uncertainty into the race. At the same time, policy fights over abortion, immigration, and the economy are raging on Capitol Hill and in statehouses.

Many voters are in disbelief that Biden and Trump, their respective parties' presumptive nominees, will ultimately appear on the general election ballot this fall. Sarah Longwell, co-founder of Republican Voters Against Trump, said, "I think we have an electorate that's going through the stages of grief about this election."

Trump is currently facing potentially four criminal trials and felony charges. The Constitution does not prevent him from assuming the presidency if convicted or even if he is in prison. Biden will turn 82 years old just weeks after Election Day, making him already the oldest president in US history; Trump is 77.

Battleground States

The political map in the fight for the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency is already taking shape. Biden's campaign is optimistic about North Carolina, a state he lost by just 1 percentage point in 2020. The Democratic president's reelection campaign has several hundred staff in more than 133 offices across seven critical states: Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, and North Carolina.

Trump's team has barely begun to roll out swing-state infrastructure but has campaigned in Wisconsin and Michigan over the past week. Trump campaign senior adviser Chris LaCivita said Trump plans to invest new resources in at least two other Democratic-leaning states: Virginia and Minnesota.

Voters Underwhelmed with Their Options

Public polling consistently shows that voters are not excited about their 2024 options. Only about 2 in 10 Americans say they would be excited by Biden (21%) or Trump (25%) being elected president. A recent CNN poll found that 53% of registered voters are dissatisfied with their presidential candidates this year.

Biden's Plan

Biden's team is focused on reminding voters of Trump's divisive leadership and demonstrating that the world's uncertainties can be navigated by Biden. They also hope that backlash to new restrictions on abortion will drive voters to Democrats.

Trump's Plan

Trump has been forced to adapt his campaign to his first criminal trial in New York. His camp privately maintains that his unprecedented trial will dominate news and voters' attention for the foreseeable future. Meanwhile, more traditional issues work in his favor, including high inflation and the situation at the U.S.-Mexico border.

Both sides agree that the dynamics of the race may yet shift dramatically based on any number of factors, from how the economy fares or the course of wars to crime or migration trends or other unforeseen events. Potential candidate debates this fall could be another wild card.