Analysis | How Will The 2024 US Elections Impact India’s Foreign Policy And Strategic Alliances?

As the 2024 U.S. presidential election approaches, the political landscape presents two starkly different visions for the future: Kamala Harris representing the Democrats and Donald Trump from the Republican Party. The outcome of this election is poised to significantly influence U.S. foreign policy, with direct implications for India.

Both parties recognize India as a pivotal partner in the Indo-Pacific region, especially in countering China's growing influence. In recent years, the U.S.-India relationship has deepened, with substantial strategic cooperation in key technology sectors. A landmark development was the launch of the initiative on Critical and Emerging Technology (iCET) in 2023, aimed at enhancing collaboration in fields such as artificial intelligence, biotechnology, and clean energy.

The roots of this partnership trace back to the Clinton administration, establishing a Vision for the 21st Century. Each subsequent U.S. president has engaged with India, reinforcing the relationship through bilateral and multilateral channels. India's Minister for External Affairs, S. Jaishankar, expressed confidence that the presidential election results will not adversely affect India's ties with the U.S., stating, "We have every confidence that we will be able to work with the president of the United States, whoever he or she will be."

However, analysis of recent speeches from both party conventions and debates indicates that the policies of either a Harris or Trump presidency concerning China, Russia, and immigration warrant close scrutiny, as they will undoubtedly affect India.

Trade Dynamics with China

Both candidates advocate for a robust U.S. economic policy, particularly regarding reducing dependence on Chinese imports, though they propose different strategies to achieve this. Trump intends to deepen the trade war with China, favoring a protectionist approach that includes imposing a 60% tariff on Chinese goods. His rationale is that such measures will compel Beijing to make concessions and purchase more U.S.-manufactured products, thereby decreasing the trade deficit.

In contrast, Harris's strategy focuses on bolstering U.S. manufacturing competitiveness and enlisting allies, like the Netherlands and Japan, to impose similar export controls on China. Her administration's initiatives include the 2022 CHIPS and Science Act, which aims to revive U.S. manufacturing in critical sectors, including biomanufacturing, aerospace, artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and blockchain technology.

Despite differing tactics, both candidates are likely to adopt stricter economic policies toward China, a sentiment echoed by Ryan Hass from the Brookings Institution, who noted that the U.S. will pursue "de-risking" from China and seek to shift manufacturing supply chains to other Asian countries. Notably, between 2018 and 2022, India's exports to the U.S. surged by 44%, indicating that U.S. efforts to establish secure supply chains could lead to increased engagement with India.

Implications for the Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The approaches to the Russia-Ukraine war also differ between Harris and Trump. The Democratic platform emphasizes the Biden-Harris administration's success in limiting Russia's territorial ambitions in Ukraine, relying on support from NATO allies and continued military assistance. Conversely, Trump may adopt a more unpredictable stance, seeking to mediate an agreement between Ukraine and Russia that could involve demilitarization of contested territories.

India's balancing act between the U.S. and Russia will be influenced by the next president. A Harris administration may push New Delhi to leverage its relationship with Moscow to facilitate an end to the conflict while encouraging a reduction in defense ties with Russia. Under Trump, however, the existing India-Russia partnership might not face as much scrutiny, allowing for potential growth.

For instance, in 2018, India secured a $5.5 billion deal for S-400 missile systems from Russia, and while Trump initially warned of possible sanctions, they were not enforced. The Biden-Harris administration later considered granting waivers to India, citing the country's strategic needs amid ongoing border tensions with China. However, these waivers have yet to be finalized as of 2024, indicating a continuing push from the U.S. for India to move away from reliance on Russian defense systems.

Immigration Policies

Immigration and border security remain critical electoral issues, with both candidates advocating for limitations on immigration but offering differing approaches. Harris supports a system that promotes "earned citizenship" and aims to reform the immigration system through increased funding for border security, while proposing the creation of additional green card-eligible visas.

Trump's agenda, on the other hand, includes aggressive measures such as mass deportations and a rollback of birthright citizenship. His administration previously enacted strict visa restrictions and pursued a "merit-based immigration system," prioritizing highly qualified candidates.

These immigration policies are particularly relevant to the Indian community in the U.S., which constitutes 20% of the Asian American population. Increased visa restrictions during the Obama and Trump administrations have already created challenges for high-skilled immigration from India, making the evolving immigration landscape a significant concern for Indian professionals.

Focus on Technology Cooperation

Regardless of the election outcome, the technological partnership between the U.S. and India is expected to remain a central theme in their bilateral relationship. The Trump administration initiated key advancements in this area, and continued cooperation in technology is likely to be a priority for Harris as well.

In summary, the U.S. elections present a critical juncture for India as it navigates its foreign policy landscape amid changing U.S. priorities. The outcomes will shape not only bilateral relations but also the broader geopolitical dynamics in the Indo-Pacific region.