Will Jharkhand go the Maharashtra way?

Ranchi, Aug 31: The stage is set for a long-drawn political drama in Jharkhand after the UPA coalition government in the state shifted its MLAs to Raipur to protect them from being poached in view of alleged "horse-trading" tactics by the BJP.

Over thirty MLAs of the JMM-Congress-RJD coalition in Jharkhand flew to Raipur by a chartered flight on Tuesday and were taken to Mayfair Golf Resort in Nava Raipur.

It is the third state that is witnessing political upheavals after Maharashtra and Bihar.

Soren's Jharkhand Mukti Morcha believes that the BJP may make a serious attempt to poach MLAs from it and Congress in a bid to topple the government in a manner similar to Maharashtra.

Following a petition by the BJP seeking Soren's disqualification from the Assembly in an office of profit case, the Election Commission sent its decision to state Governor Ramesh Bais on August 25.

Though the EC's decision is not yet made public, there was a buzz that the poll panel had recommended the chief minister's disqualification as an MLA.

The Jharkhand Mukti Morcha is the largest party in the assembly with 30 seats in the 81-member Jharkhand Assembly. The majority mark is 41 and it has the support of 18 MLAs from the Congress and one MLA from the Rashtriya Janata Dal. However, three dissident Congress leaders - Irfan Ansari, Rajesh Kacchap and Naman Bixal Kongari - were arrested in Bengal in West Bengal's Howrah for possessing more than Rs 45 lakh in their car.

Whereas the opposition BJP has 26 MLAs, 15 short of the majority mark. It is followed by Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (P) (3), All Jharkhand Students Union (2), Communist Party of India (M-L) (1), Nationalist Congress Party (1), and two independents.

If Soren resigns, he has to be re-elected and stake claim again to form the new government, but he has to win an election to continue as the CM in six months.

The BJP is eyeing on Jharkhand as the party's experiment to give a non-tribal CM Raghubar Das failed during the last elections.

Jharkhand has a substantial percentage of tribals - over 26 per cent. With Draupadi Murmu as President, the BJP is now trying to woo the tribal population in the state.

Since the formation of the state, the BJP had held power for half of the time, while the rest was divided between President's rule and the JMM.

Das was the first BJP CM to complete five years in office.

As Soren's fate hangs in balance the BJP has already demanded that fresh elections be held in the state after Soren's disqualification.

Will the BJP once again manage to outnumber the opposition here? Or will the JMM manage to keep its flock together? We will have to wait and watch.