Why military coup in Myanmar is more consequential for india & free open secure Indo-Pacific

Military coup has not been uncommon in the third world countries but the Military coup on 1st February 2021 should not be taken by the developed economies and democracies in the same hue as the other coups are taken. The US & the western democracies, without calculating the complex ground realities in the form of multiplicity of armed ethnic groups owing shifting allegiances between the giant northern neighbor-China and the dominant Burman ethnic group across the country, were quick to announce the slapping of economic sanctions on the Military junta of that country.

But at the first instance itself the Western economies forget or tend to brush aside two critical issues viz , this resource rich land bridge between South and SE Asia has been a theater of repeated return of sanctions against its varied dispensation in power and that it thus remained a pariah state in most part of the previous century.

The enactment of this geopolitical scenario only paved way for China to make foothold on the land and its natural resources, apart from gaining access to the maritime security of countries, their marine resources and uninterrupted navigation in the IOR(Indian Ocean Region) through its deep water port at Kyaukphyu & Dawei Port,in which China, otherwise has got no locus standing & no geographical connections. Dawei port & associated SEZ is adjacent to S.Andaman Sea & Gulf of Thailand, strategically located, connecting the Indian Ocean with Pacific Ocean ,linking South Asia with S.E.Asia, with Middle East,, Europe & plays a vital role in the Mekong Southern Economic Corridor which aims to connect Central .Vietnam, Cambodia,& Thailand.

It is one thing to share the views, common ideals, cyber space, critical technologies, counterterrorism, transparencies, responses to the pressures on the regional multilateral institutions and adopt but another to have a practical & flexible approach, particularly in the light of challenges coming from a recalcitrant, insular power which fundamentally, is against any rule based orders and International Laws including UNCLOS & has got utter disregard for the sovereignty of all neighboring nations including India.

Quad is a strategic forum between four nations that became effective to make Indo Pacific a free, open, inclusive, secure,& healthy region, anchored by democratic values, and unconstrained by coercion.

Some expert say that Quad is still evolving. Its members project themselves to be committed to an open and transparent network which will allow free flow of people, capital & knowledge and have not committed their role in Chinese misadventure in the form of Incremental Encroachment Strategy as being practiced in SCS, ECS ,Ladakh in India .It is because of this attribute that in a dialogue between the Foreign Ministers of India, France & Australia there was rightly a convergence on Indo Pacific but divergence on Myanmar. China knows that the divergence may not end here , it may run within the basic frame work of democracies of each Western Economies and India, because the foreign policy of each country is steered by their respective national interest shaped by other fluctuating circumstances.

So the Dragon was quick to launch a brain game, saying that Quad+1 is more like an Asian NATO, highly incoherent. Moreover, till now, China - the biggest new breed of Autocratic power, utilized the complexities of the three legs of dynamics of governance, prevailing in Myanmar. This it had been doing ever since CPC came to power and made entry in Myanmar decades ago.

But slapping of sanctions by the U.S, Japan and some western democracies may not serve any purpose because the two Permanent UNSC members China & Russia have stood with the Military junta projecting themselves as age old saviours of the Third World Countries. Moreover, the US, Japan , Australia & some European democracies have looked at the coup from the spectrum of sanctions that itself did not follow the universal guidelines of enforcing sanctions and have also discounted the guarded reaction of ASEAN Nations ( for obvious reasons), and in process appear to lose the geostrategic advantages. It appears in case of Myanmar, they wish to separate trade, commerce & economy with military power. But China nowhere, does think so .It believes in the amalgamation of territorial expansionism with economic might.

In addition, the western democracies have also not taken into account the complex ground political realities of the Myanmar which is a three legged kinetic viz the Military, the dominantly Barman civilian dispensation & the 17-odd segregated ethnic groups, some of which are well armed. The multiplicity of rebel ethnic groups having dynamic allegiance is region specific & have international security repercussions & cannot be ignored for arriving at any peaceful democratic governance, cumulatively have the potential to complicate the geo-political frame work of Myanmar at a time when the country holds a special status in the geographical fabric of Indo Pacific Region encompassing through the Andaman Sea, Gulf of Thailand ,Strait of Malacca opening into IOR.

These however will be source of international security repercussions particularly for India which has a disputed land border with China for decades. Thus it is the combined power equation of the two that will matter for the governance of the country. For example, in 1990s when the election results which was in favor of NLD, were over turned by the Military, the later was able to manage the rebel ethnic groups by striking arms for peace agreement & conceding a greater degree of autonomy to them in their respective regions. Military thus continued to rule till 2011.

China armed these groups & maintained strong links with them on Myanmar-China and Myanmar-China-India border, Myanmar-Thailand border, Myanmar-Laos border. However, it is China that has a surreptitiously designed game plan that ultimately will come closer to establishing its grip in the Indo Pacific.

At this juncture it would be frugal to keep an eye on few lines on the contemporary political history of China & Myanmar, which was the first non-communist state to recognize People's Republic of China in 1949.Their relationship became warmer during Deng Xiaoping's rule in China in mid 1970s and the Tatmadaw became a reliable partner for China in maintaining its strategic and commercial interest in the region that is a bridge between SCS & IOR through Andaman sea and Strait of Malacca. At the same time China maintained a genial relation with the armed hostile ethnic groups and arming the same on the land borders of Myanmar with Thailand, China and Bangladesh, Laos & India. China remained skeptical of the Democratic dispensation under Daw Aung Saang Suu Kyi that her democratically elected government would be influenced by western democracies and that NLD Government under her after assuming office on 1st Februray 2021 would clip the powers of the Tatmadaw in the new Parliament.

The Military junta therefore overthrew the newly incumbent Democratic regime at the behest of China, resulting in massive bloody upheaval and strong civil disobedience movement encompassing all segments of civilian government. Some experts say that a Civilian dispensation at the center might not have suited the strategy of China towards Myanmar and its resources, many of which are critical for newly emerging technological landscape. But some say otherwise.

There are a couple of reasons on why Myanmar-our eastern most neighbor, holds special status for not only our national integrity, land & maritime security, trade, development of our otherwise neglected North eastern states but also in the interest of the recently signed Japan-India-Australia trilateral resilient supply chain agreement. But China may be punctiliously working towards a strategy of suzerainty with Myanmar and some other ASEAN countries which are now already a near tributary state to the Middle Kingdom to counter the Quad +1 in the Indo Pacific and thus maintain its hegemony in the region.

I will state in brief the strategy which China will rely upon in Myanmar. Due to the multiplicity of ethnic groups owning shuffling allegiances the crisis on transnational borders would not be alike and would tend to push Myanmar again as a pariah state- resulting in greater influence & control of China through an Authoritarian Military power that wants to retain all powers of governance which otherwise would lie with the democratically elected Government.

The northern borders of Myanmar with China in Kayin, Kachin & Shan states will witness violent clashes between MNDAA ( Myanmar National Democratic Army) & Kokang Border Guard Force that reports to the Tatmadaw . Most of the insurgent groups, some prominent groups being KIA, MNDAA, Ta'ang National Liberation Army & perhaps even United Wa Liberation Army have expressed support for the newly elected Democratic government .

While the response of another insurgent out fit viz Arakan Army (AA) active on India-Myanmar border, particularly Rakhine state, is on a pause. To summarize, it can be said that the border states in the north, east and west will now be site of bloody volatilities where China would be playing the game of "run with the hare and hunt with the hounds" which it has always been playing in not only Myanmar but even in neighboring countries like Laos, Cambodia etc. In other words China wants to ensure that Myanmar becomes a pariah state governed by an Authoritarian Military government which will keep projecting the peoples representatives as stooges of the West.

Apart from the complexities of transnational security concerns which I have tried to delve as above, it would be worth stating in the next paragraph below some concerns of hidden geopolitical convolution which the experts in South Block, New Delhi must have kept in mind. It is not the pressure of targeted sanctions against the top military brass, their families, and army-linked business for the restoration of Democratic system in Myanmar that will isolate the junta but antithetically will push it deeper inside Chinese control, may be as a pariah tributary state. This thing should be matter of concern for not only India but all like minded democracies, including Quad +1.

Post Covid 19, at the core of this fast changing geopolitical drama lies the technology of semi-conductors chips that measures less than five nanometers that are the brains to all our electronics, from mobile to cards to fighter jets in which the U.S and China are nearly evenly matched. It is at this place that the significance of broad assertiveness of the Dragon across the Indo-Pacific region comes into play because many of the raw materials of the semiconductor chip are hosted in countries like Myanmar, Malaysia, and Cambodia, Thailand, etc & technologically most advanced Taiwan (TSMC). At this stage it would be prudent to say that some minerals of As, Sb, Ga, Ge Sn, REM are key raw materials in those said semiconductor chips apart from Silicon being the main. And the most startling point that needs to be reckoned with is that China draws 50% of its import of REE from Myanmar in a clandestine fashion. With the aforesaid reason in mind , it is abundantly clear that China's power and influence will continue to spread into Indian Ocean, South Asia, South East Asia through South China Sea.

A classic case of insatiable appetite of China for annexing territories of neighboring and extended neighboring countries for their natural resources and their eco-system is also reflected in the changing the morphology of South China Sea where it has made a number of artificial islands, militarized numerous attols and small shoals, which affect the marine ecology, some richest marine resources, and marine processes that is crucial for the welfare of countries like Vietnam, Malaysia, Cambodia, Taiwan, Brunei, etc. Though Myanmar is not directly under SCS but this country too, would be under the expansionist onslaught of China because it is very rich in mineral resources that form the raw materials for green energy, military hardware, artificial intelligence, high-tech machinery, etc. Published Texts can be incorporated for some of the projects in Myanmar, Cambodia and Papua New Guinea that may demonstrate the clandestine way the Dragon has annexed the rich critical mineral resources of those countries in a way that is detrimental to the overall Ecosystem including the livelihood of the local commune and the primary forest cover, some of which are endangered.

It has thus become abundantly clear that India being a member of Quad +1 would support the cause of democracy but it has to make sure that it stands with the people of Myanmar through whatever dispensation governs the country. Safe guard its own territorial & maritime security, commerce , connectivity, cultural commonality, through its firm presence encompassing appropriate involvements in the execution of critical infrastructure projects and exploration &exploitation of critical mineral resources of Myanmar, so that BIMSTEC becomes more purposeful & Dragon is not able to form a Quad like platform with some Authoritarian states of ASEAN Nations who are already seen to be under Chinese influence constrained by coercion or through BRI .

The Quad members are aware of the crucial position of India in the Indo Pacific region which has the potential to host a new multi-lateral resilient, sustainable supply chain without the Dragon for a new world order. The wrinkles in the Quad may be the target of Mind game unleashed by China and may take time to be ironed out. The talks till then & joint naval exercise will not deter the PRC because it has already made a head start in militarizing the SCS with many of the ASEAN Nations under its control/influence. If we are to tangibly confront & contain the onslaught of China in ASEAN & Indo Pacific, the Quad nations must act in coherence, do not let Myanmar go away as Pariah state into the lap of the Dragon, align their national interest, military cooperation, transparency, and ensure proliferation of Technology transfer, safe navigation, easy access to critical mineral resources & the US must shed its ego. If Myanmar is lost then China's ambition of destabilizing the Indian Ocean for its Blue Economy with its Blue Navy, will come closer to reality.

Last but not the least, important is that India-Japan-Australia trilateral resilient supply chain initiative should be strengthened and effectively operationalized keeping Myanmar in that ambit so that its unique biotic, abiotic, land and marine resources are not plundered by China to keep inflating its economy and resources and succeed in its punctiliously designed route to Western Indian Ocean through the Arabian sea which is the potential theater of conflict for its Blue economy.

I lay special emphasis on bolstering of the Japan-India-Australia tri- lateral supply chain initiative coupling with BIMSTEC- an inter-regional grouping that seeks to foster regional & economic cooperation among nations adjacent to Bay of Bengal and in littoral areas. This out of the box thinking, may be a solution to check mate the growing hegemony of China which appear to have not only punctiliously clipped India in ASEAN Summit, held at Jakarta on 24th April 2021 but have stolen a march over the Western democracies if you read the fine prints between the lines of the ASEAN Documents. BIMSTEC includes Myanmar and Bangladesh and from our perspective , resource rich and geo-strategically located Myanmar holds the key to check mate China from reaching Indian Ocean, smoothly .

(Ravi Sinha, Consultant Geologist)