Why elections in northeast states are crucial for BJP

The outcome of election result in the northeastern states is crucial for the BJP to shed the image of being an 'anti-Christian party'.

New Delhi, Jan 10: The year 2023 is going to be politically crucial as nine states and a union territory are going to the polls, which are considered as the semifinal ahead mega battle of 2024.

Polls are scheduled in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka, Chhattisgarh, Telangana, Tripura, Meghalaya, Nagaland and Mizoram. If all goes well, the government may also hold assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir next year.

Of the nine states that are going to polls, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Karnataka are big states representing a total of 82 seats in the Lok Sabha. Other states Chhattisgarh and Telangana, together contribute 28 seats to the lower house.

Though, small in size, the four Northeastern states - Tripura, Meghalaya, Nagaland and Mizoram - which contribute, a total of 6 seats in the Lok Sabha will set the tune of national politics.

Out of the three northeastern states, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) secured a massive victory in Tripura, but the governments in Meghalaya and Nagaland were formed after political manoeuvring.

Tripura

To begin with, the saffron party and the Indigenous People's Front of Tripura (IPFT) fought the Assembly elections together in 2018 and wrested power from the Left Front.

The BJP-IPFT alliance swept to power in the state in 2018, defeating its arch-rival Communist Party of India (Marxist). The BJP won 35 seats and the IPFT 8.

However, this time, the stakes are for the BJP as the saffron party is facing the heat of anti-incumbency. The authoritarian style of functioning by former Chief Minister Biplab Deb spawned massive rift within the party. Sensing trouble, the BJP high command swung into action by replacing Deb with Manik Saha as the chief minister but the challenges faced by the saffron party have not withered away.

The BJP also faces the challenge from CPI(M), which has found a new strength under its new state secretary Jitendra Chaudhury. The CPI(M) has been running a planned and systematic campaign against the hills against the state's saffron government.

Meanwhile, a resurgent Congress has also been gaining ground, setting an alarm for the BJP as its ascent to power was possible because of the decimation of the grand old party.

Furthermore, BJP ally the Indigenous Peoples Front of Tripura (IPFT) has nearly zero presence compared to Pradyot Kishore Manikya Debbarma's TIPRA Motha. BJP's tribal wing Janajati Morcha has also lost it's sheen and doesn't look to be in a position to even pose a challenge to Motha in the tribal belt.

Moreover, the BJP, has been voted out of power in Himachal Pradesh last year and it cannot afford to lose another hill state, as it will affect the saffron footprint in the country.

This year election will also be a litimus test for the party's formula of changing the chief minister ahead of the elections. The CM changing formula has worked in Gujarat and Uttarakhand.

Apart from this, BJP won Tripura based on banking on Prime Minister Narendra Modi's popularity, but will that be enough this elections? We need to wait and watch.

Meghalaya

In contrast to Tripura, the BJP has nothing to lose in Meghalaya. In previous years, BJP worked with the ruling Meghalaya Democratic Alliance comprising five parties. This elections, it is fighting alone and has stepped up its attack on the ruling Conrad Sangma-led National People's Party (NPP).

In fillip to the BJP, four MLAs - two from NPP, one from TMC (Trinamool Congress) and an Independent - have joined the saffron party ahead of the elections.

In 2028, the Congress emerged as the single-largest party in the state winning 21 seats, but failed to cobble up a coalition with other regional outfits.

Nagaland

In Nagaland, the BJP-NDPP alliance have a bright chance of forming the next government again. There is no opposition in the hill state after the Naga People's Front (NPF) joined the NDPP last year.

The BJP has decided continue alliance with the Neiphiu Rio-led National Democratic Progressive Party (NDPP) this time and agreed to contest 20 seats.

In 2018, the BJP-NDPP alliance stormed to power by bagging a total of 30 seats and formed the government. The saffron party also got support from the sole Independent MLA and the sole Janata Dal (United) MLA.

The outcome of election result in the northeastern states is crucial for the BJP to shed the image of being an 'anti-Christian party'.