Why Congress-JDS will help BJP in Karnataka?

Bengaluru, Mar 18: As the results of the Karnataka Assembly elections poured in 2018 a narrative was built that said Congress and JDS would have registered massive victory had they forged a pre-poll alliance. The subsequent victory in the Bellary, Mandya Lok Sabha by-elections, (though experts do not agree with this reason) strengthened the belief that the alliance can defeat the BJP. However, the scenario had changed a lot since the by-elections.

In 2014 Lok Sabha elections, Congress got three seats more than 2009; they won nine seats with a voting percentage of 40.80 per cent. After the bypoll in Bellary, Congress tally rose to 10. The Congress will be appreciated for retaining the present seats for following reasons.

1. Discontent with coalition:
Holding onto power even after the BJP got 104 seats in the last assembly elections has sent a wrong signal to the people of Karnataka. JDS with 37+ (1 BSP) MLAs forged a post-poll alliance with Congress (80 MLAs). Unfortunately, BJP being single largest party with 104 seats fell short of majority and now in opposition. State BJP chief BS Yeddyurappa till last minute tried to bring a few Congress and JDS MLAs into the saffron party, but failed. Grapavine has that the alliance is likely end after the Lok Sabha elections. Several Congress MLAs are in touch with BJP leaders.

2. Pulwama attack and the IAF strike:
The dastardly attack on CRPF jawans in Pulwama shook the conscience of the country. The Modi government was under pressure to respond to the attack. Amid call for war against the IAF strike on Balakot has pacified the resentment among the voters. And the successful release of Wing Commandar Abhinandan Varthaman has won accolades for the PM Modi. Also, the demand for the evidence on casualties by the opposition parties is likely to work in favour of the BJP.

3. Lack of candidates to take on BJP bastions
Congress' plans of winning more than 20 Lok Sabha seats has hit a roadblock due to lack of candidates. Even though, Congress has to contest only on 20 states out of 8 still find it difficult to find suitable candidates to take on BJP. For instance, no Congress leader is interested in fighting from Bengaluru South where late BJP leader Ananath Kumar's wife Tejaswini is contesting from. Voters in Coastal and North Karnataka are rock solid behind the BJP. On the other hand, BJP's ticket distribution in Karnataka is free of confusion. State BJP chief BS Yeddyurappa had declared that no sitting MLAs would get ticket for Lok Sabha elections and all the sitting MPs would continue.

4. Disappointment in Congress
Already Tumkuru and Bangalore North MLAs are unhappy with Congress for sharing these two seats with the JDS. Bellary district has changed completely from the last bypoll. All is not well in Bellary Congress, after Congress MLAs JN Ganesh and Anand Singh were involved in an ugly brawl. In North Karnataka, Congress MLA from Umesh Jadahav, has left the party to content as BJP candidate from Gulbarga against senior Congress leader Mallikarjun Kharge. In Belgaum district, Ramesh Jarakiholi, who was about to join BJP, is unhappy with the Congress for denying him a Cabinet berth.

5. This election is about Modi vs Modi
Clearly, this election is all about Modi vs Modi. Congress President Rahul Gandhi's attack over Rafale deal, demonetisation and job loss not enough to win perception battle in general and specifically in Karnataka. Rahul Gandhi's posture as leaders of chaotic 'Mahaghatbandhan' may not gone down well with voters though he's matured as a politician over five years. People are convinced that Rahul Gandhi is not a match to PM Modi neither in experience nor in charisma.