Gujarat elections 2017: BJP set for big win, predicts Times Now-VMR survey

A Times Now-VMR survey of voters in Gujarat has predicted a comfortable victory for the BJP in the state.

The Times Now-VMR opinion survey projects that the BJP could secure around 118-134 seats in the Gujarat assembly elections. The Congress could secure around 49-61 seats. While this means that the BJP does have enough numbers, it might not reach the desired number of 150.

According to Times Now poll, 52 per cent said that they would vote for the BJP, while 37 per cent said that they would vote for the Congress.

This means there is no noticeable change in seat share projections in 2017 over 2012 results for the Congress, but the BJP has increased its seat tally. BJP could increase its vote share by a significant 4 % despite Narendra Modi not being at the helm of affairs in the state since 2014, thus dispelling the notion that Modi not outside the state and in the centre somehow weakens the BJP.

The Congress overdrive in trying to woo caste leaders among Dalits and Patidars may not have had a significant electoral impact. In the contest between the Congress' attempt at strategic caste alliances in the state, and the BJP's well oiled electoral machinery, the latter may win out.

However, there is a noticeable drop in the BJP's projected performance, when compared to its performance in the 2014 General Assembly elections. There is a noticeable drop in its vote share as well, from 60 % in 2014 to 52 % in 2017.

Similarly, Congress has improved its performance, both in terms of projected seat share and vote share, when compared to 2014 general election results.

The polling for the two-phase elections in the state will take place on December 9 and 14, and votes will be counted on December 18.

OneIndia News