What ails the BJP in the Old-Mysuru Region in Karnataka

With the Karnataka elections round the corner, the question is will the JD(S) end up playing kingmaker again? The performance of the BJP, especially in the Old-Mysuru Region would be closely watched

New Delhi, Jan 03: Union Home Minister and senior BJP leader, Amit Shah during his recent visit to Karnataka sounded the poll bugle for the 2023 Karnataka elections and said that the leaders must focus on the Old-Mysuru Region.

The statement came just days after the Janata Dal (Secular) kickstarted its Pancharatna Yatra, a road campaign across the Old-Mysuru Region from Mulabagilu in Kolar district. According to former chief minister of Karnatakaand JD(S) leader, this Yatra of his would disrupt the voter base of the Congress in the region. Historically the Congress has always done well in this region, but over the years, the JD(S) has been a competitor owing the huge Vokkaliga population in the region. The BJP on the other hand struggles in this region and relies heavily on the Coast and the North Karnataka region where its voters, the Lingayats are high in number.

Shah during his visit rightly pointed out that if the BJP has to be the single largest party in the state, it has to win big in the Old-Mysuru Region.

In the 2008 elections when the BJP put up a very impressive performance in Karnataka it bagged 27.5 per cent of the vote share in this region. However in the 2013 election the vote share fell to 16 per cent. However the story in this region in the 2014 elections was very different. Pratap Simha of the BJP won the Mysore-Kodagu constituency with a vote share of 43.5 per cent while A H Vishwanath of the Congress finished at 40.7 per cent. The JD(S) candidate Chandrashekaraiah came third with a vote share of 11.95 per cent.

In this context one would have to take a look at a survey done by the CSDS which had said that four out of 10 voters in Karnataka would not have voted for the BJP in 2014 if Narendra Modi was not the prime ministerial candidate.

In the 2018 elections, the BJP managed to win just 10 of the 66 seats in this Vokkaliga dominated bastion who constitute 15 per cent of the state's population. The JD(S) on the other hand won 28 seats and the Congress which had won 25 seats in this region was reduced to 17.

In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, Prathap Simha of the BJP retained his seat in the Mysore-Kodagu constituency by winning 6,88,974 votes. The Congress candidate V H Vijayshankar bagged 5,50,327.

A constituency wise analysis for this region shows that in most of the seats, the candidate finishing first and second bag 75 per cent of the votes and this ends up pushing the candidate coming third way behind.

Another analysis would show that in many elections in the past the Congress has ended up coming first or second in 180 seats across the state. However in the case of the BJP it came first and second in 165 seats, while in 70 seats it came neither first or second in the 2008 elections in which it had put up its best show till date. This indicates that the BJP has a stronger presence in the northern part of the state, while it lags in southern part in which the Old-Mysuru Region falls.

With the kind of performance that the JD(S) puts up in this region, it appears that if it is able to repeat the same, it will once again play kingmaker in the state. The BJP will have to increase its tally considerably in this region, if it has win big and form the government on its own. If it does it would fall short by 20 to 30 seats like it last time and will have to depend on another party to form the government.

The BJP has over the years consolidated its Lingayat base in the north, its voter bases in the urban areas and coastal Karnataka. It has largely ignored the southern region for many years, which is why Amit Shah stressed on the importance of this region.

While the south has been a problem for the BJP, it would also have to look at its performance in Bengaluru urban. In 2018, the BJP won just 11 of the 28 seats, while the Congress and JD(S) ended up with 15 and 2 respectively. In the 2008 elections, the BJP had managed to win 17 in Bengaluru urban. In 2013, when the party was fighting the elections without B S Yeddiyurappa, the party managed 12 in this region.

A lot of focus would be on the performance by the BJP especially in the Old-Mysuru Region. If the party fails in this region and Bengaluru urban it would find it extremely difficult to form the government in Karnataka.