West Bengal Pre-Poll Survey: Opinion Poll Predicts Edge for TMC but big Rise In BJP's Vote Share

As the West Bengal Assembly Election 2026 nears, political enthusiasts are eager to see which way the tide may turn in the 294-member Assembly. An opinion poll conducted by IANS-Matrize indicated a tight contest in the West Bengal Assembly election 2026, with the Trinamool Congress (TMC) projected to hold a slight edge over the BJP-led alliance. The survey suggests that while the ruling party is ahead, the gap remains narrow, indicating a closely fought election across the state.

According to the IANS-Matrize pre-poll survey, The poll estimates that the TMC could win between 140 and 160 seats in the 294-member Assembly. The BJP-led alliance is projected to secure between 130 and 150 seats, keeping the contest competitive. Other parties and independent candidates are expected to win a small share, with around 8 to 10 seats.

In terms of vote share, the difference between the two main contenders appears marginal. The Trinamool Congress is projected to receive between 43 and 45 percent of the vote, while the BJP-led alliance could secure around 41 to 43 percent. Other parties are expected to account for roughly 13 to 15 percent. The narrow gap of around two percent highlights how closely matched the two sides are heading into the election.

West Bengal Assembly Election 2026: Seat Projection

BJP: 130-150
TMC: 140-160
OTH: 8-10

The polling for the West Bengal Assembly will be conducted in two phases. The first phase is scheduled for April 23 and will cover 152 constituencies. The second phase will take place on April 29 across the remaining 142 constituencies.

In the previous Assembly election held in 2021, the TMC won 213 of the 294 seats, while the BJP secured 77 seats, a major rise from the three seats it won in the 2016 Assembly election.

The results will be declared on May 4, when counting of votes will take place. The outcome is expected to be significant not only for West Bengal but also for the broader political landscape, as it will be announced along with results from other regions going to the polls.