Weather Alert: IMD Predicts Above-Normal Rainfall And La Niña Conditions Expected By August End

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted above-normal rainfall for India in August and September. There is a strong likelihood that favourable La Niña conditions will develop by the end of August. The IMD expects rainfall over India during these months to be 106 per cent of the long-period average of 422.8 mm.

The monsoon is crucial for India's agricultural sector, with 52 per cent of the net cultivated area relying on it. Additionally, it replenishes reservoirs essential for drinking water and power generation across the country.

Since June 1, India has recorded 453.8 mm of rainfall, which is 2 per cent above the normal of 445.8 mm, due to a wetter-than-normal July following a drier June.

The IMD has forecasted normal to above-normal rainfall for most parts of the country. However, parts of the northeast, adjoining east India, Ladakh, Saurashtra, Kutch, and some areas of central and peninsular India are expected to receive below-normal rainfall, according to IMD Chief Mrutyunjay Mohapatra during an online press conference.

Mohapatra also predicted deficient rainfall in parts of the western Himalayan region for August and September.

Additionally, above-normal maximum temperatures are expected over most parts of the country, with normal to below-normal maximum temperatures anticipated in some areas of the Gangetic plains, central India, and the southeast coast, Mohapatra added.

In July, India recorded nine per cent more rainfall than normal, with central India experiencing a 33 per cent excess in precipitation. This marks the third consecutive monsoon season with favourable rainfall for central India, which is crucial for agriculture.

However, significant rainfall deficits have been observed in east Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Gangetic West Bengal, and parts of the northeast. Additionally, Haryana, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, and Jammu and Kashmir have faced deficits ranging from 35 per cent to 45 per cent.

The Indian monsoon naturally experiences fluctuations and variability due to various natural factors. Research indicates that climate change is increasing this variability, leading to more extreme weather events and prolonged dry spells.