Vote swing in Bihar, Uttar Pradesh Lok Sabha bypoll
The Uttar Pradesh and Bihar by-elections results have dealt a the gigantic blow to Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). According to poll analysis, not only coming together of Mayawati's BSP and Akhilesh Yadav's SP but also massive vote swing in favour of Samajwadi Party.
According to NDTV analysis, in Uttar Pradesh, the vote for the SP - supported by the BSP - is a huge positive swing of 9 per cent to 10 per cent higher than their combined vote in 2014.
The swing against the BJP in its strongest seats was even more significant.
In 2014 general elections, 37.4 per cent votes polled for SP-BSP (combined) in Phulpur Lok Sabha seats. In the bypoll, with 9.5 per cent vote swing, SP-BSP secured 46.9 per cent votes. In Gorakhpur, with 10 per cent vote swing, SP-BSP got 48.9 per cent votes. In 2014, 38.8 per cent votes went to SP-BSP.
In Araria LS seat, BJP+JD (U) got 43. 9 per cent votes, 5.6 per cent less compared to 2014 election in which vote share was 49.5 per cent.
On the other hand, BJP lost 13.6 per cent votes in Phulpur and in Gorakhpur 5.3 per cent. In a nutshell, the defeat of the BJP was enabled - 66 per cent due to a united opposition and 33 per cent due to a swing in their favour. The analysis projected that if this trend continues, the BJP is facing defeat in the 2019 general election.