For Quick Alerts
ALLOW NOTIFICATIONS  
For Daily Alerts
Oneindia App Download

Ukraine conflict: Chances of Russian withdrawal remote

|
Google Oneindia News

The West may be pondering over the fact that the war is diverting its attention from China, its chief rival now, as the conflict is compelling Moscow to align with Beijing.

Will the ongoing Western support for Ukraine in its ongoing war with Russia lead Moscow to withdraw from the conflict zone and negotiate peace on Kyiv's conditions?

Observers say Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky may be feeling confident in the war. He claims to have received "unprecedented defence and financial assistance" from the United States, supposedly the world's sole superpower today. According to a report, the US has promised $38 billion in military aid and delivered $13 billion in direct aid to Ukraine so far. The United Kingdom, too, has been committed to support Ukraine in its fight against Russia. London has so far extended to Kyiv more than £2.3 billion in military aid.

Ukraine conflict: Chances of Russian withdrawal remote

But the chances of any Russian withdrawal from the war on Ukraine's terms and conditions are very remote. The staying power of Russia is very substantial. Russia has an impressive nuclear arsenal. If Russia's conventional military fortunes take a turn for the worst, it may resort to nuclear war. The Russian nuclear doctrine already allows it to go in for a gradual use of nuclear weapons within a large-scale conventional war.

India, PM Modi became 'voice of world': Jaishankar on ending Ukraine conflict through dialogue, diplomacyIndia, PM Modi became 'voice of world': Jaishankar on ending Ukraine conflict through dialogue, diplomacy

Russia views Ukraine as its backyard. Ukraine has been independent since 1991 only. Since the 14th century, it had been under some kind of foreign rule. It was only in 1954 that then Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev transferred the Crimean Peninsula to Ukraine. Today, Russia is in control of Crimea and the Donbas, the regions that are populated by ethnic Russians. They are highly unlikely to accept reverting to Ukrainian rule.

Moreover, the West may develop cold feet in supporting Ukraine against Russia for long. The Western ammunition stock is quickly depleting. The West may feel content with the fact that it has already attained its strategic objective of weakening Russia, making the eastern flank of North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) more secure.

Pertinently, some of the leading strategists in the United States have always favoured accommodation with Russia in the post-Cold War landscape. In a media interview of May 1998, late George F. Kennan said that there was "no reason for" any NATO expansion. He said, "Our differences in the Cold War were with the Soviet communist regime. And now we are turning our backs on the very people who mounted the greatest bloodless revolution in history to remove that Soviet regime."

In March 2014, legendary strategist Henry Kissinger advised that Russia and Europe should be in a cooperative international system. He said Russia does not see Ukraine as "just a foreign country." He suggested "the United States needs to avoid treating Russia as an aberrant to be patiently taught rules of conduct established by Washington."

US rocket launchers to Ukraine have a special feature: They can't fire into Russia!US rocket launchers to Ukraine have a special feature: They can't fire into Russia!

The West may also be calculating that the Ukraine war is diverting its attention from China, its chief rival with an entirely different set of values on the contemporary international stage. The Ukraine war is weakening only Moscow and compelling the latter to align with Beijing.

(Jagdish N. Singh is a senior journalist based in New Delhi. He is also Senior Distinguished Fellow at the Gatestone Institute, New York)

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are the personal opinions of the author. The facts and opinions appearing in the article do not reflect the views of OneIndia and OneIndia does not assume any responsibility or liability for the same.

For Daily Alerts
Get Instant News Updates
Enable
x
Notification Settings X
Time Settings
Done
Clear Notification X
Do you want to clear all the notifications from your inbox?
Settings X
X