Today’s Chanakya Exit Poll Predicts NDA Sweep in Bihar; Caste Equations Favour BJP-Led Alliance

The Today's Chanakya Exit Poll has predicted a decisive victory for the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in the Bihar Assembly Election 2025, suggesting that the ruling alliance has successfully consolidated key caste groups and maintained a strong lead across most regions of the state.

According to the exit poll projections, the NDA is likely to win 160 ± 12 seats in the 243-member Assembly, while the RJD-led Mahagathbandhan (MGB) is expected to secure 77 ± 12 seats. Other parties and independents are predicted to bag 6 ± 3 seats, indicating a clear margin in favour of the ruling coalition.

In terms of vote share, the survey estimates that the NDA will garner 44% ± 3%, the Mahagathbandhan around 38% ± 3%, and Others approximately 18% ± 3%. These numbers signal a strong position for the BJP and its allies as the state awaits counting day results.

Caste-Wise Breakdown Shows NDA Dominance

The Today's Chanakya caste analysis provides deeper insight into Bihar's electoral dynamics:

Among Brahmins, Banias, and Rajputs, the NDA has secured a massive 63% support, compared to only 19% for the RJD-led front.

The Muslim electorate, on the other hand, has remained firmly with the RJD+, giving it 69% backing, while the NDA managed just 12%.

In the crucial OBC and EBC segments, the NDA enjoys a significant lead with 55% support, against 24% for the Mahagathbandhan.

Analysts say these figures suggest a consolidation of the NDA's upper caste and non-Yadav OBC vote bank, while the opposition's strength remains limited to Muslim and Yadav communities. This demographic tilt appears to have given the NDA a clear edge in most regions, particularly in Bhojpur, Mithilanchal, and Magadh, where support for Nitish Kumar's governance model remains strong.

Meanwhile, the Mahagathbandhan is expected to perform better in Seemanchal and Kosi, regions with higher Muslim-Yadav population density.

Political observers believe that women's increased participation, welfare delivery schemes, and stable governance under Nitish Kumar may have further strengthened NDA's appeal.

If the Today's Chanakya projections hold true, the NDA could be on course for another term in Bihar, with the RJD once again falling short of power despite high expectations.